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Is there actual clear evidence that global warming has truly prevented an ice age? It's certainly the first time I've seen that assertion put forth and I'd need some actual scientific evidence that's the case.

I do agree though, an actual ice age would probably have a much more severe impact that global warming...but I'd definitely prefer that neither occur.



No, there is no clear evidence for that, unless you count models. It is all extrapolation founded in data - we have the temperature curve for the last few hundred thousand years (basically this: [1]), as well as information about the composition of the atmosphere. It is not even clear why and how ice ages happen exactly [2].

I'd not even be sure how to show evidence for that unless we waited a few hundred thousand years to make sure the temperature curve does not behave as before. I can, however, give some links to the discussions (e.g.[3][4]). The people in [4] ran a model, here's the paper: [5], and found a small effect (contact me if you can't access it). It's hard to say how good model evidence is, however. A lot of influences are missing, and we'd need to validate the model with more data, which isn't there. (So yeah, I wouldn't count that as evidence, just a hint.)

At this point, this is just an idea discussed by people with domain knowledge and experience, nothing more. It doesn't change the fact that we have a problem, it just influences how people look at details of climate models, and which questions to ask the models.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temperature_record#mediaviewer...

or even longer for all of the planet's existence:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Five_Myr_Climate_Change.s...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_age#Causes_of_ice_ages

[3]http://www.technologyreview.com/article/416786/global-warmin...

[4]http://www.news.wisc.edu/16083

[5] http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379104...


This is a great comment and I really appreciate you putting it together for me. I've read through all the links but can only read the abstract of the paper linked at:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379104...

You mentioned that you could likely get that to me- it would be very appreciated. I'll send you a quick email as well. Thanks again!




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