"worse than random" - great way to describe the likely result of big-corp/government investment in IT projects. The YC model (and VC model to some extent) works precisely because of the unpredictable nature of innovation - it is hard to predict 'the next big thing', 'the next google' etc. but you can increase your chances by investing thinly across many startups. The returns for those that succeed will far outweigh the cost of those that don't.