> at least to predict that a quake we see is likely to be a precursor to a much ... | Hacker News

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		mhurron 13 days ago \| parent \| context \| favorite \| on: Magnitude 7.4 Earthquake – 5 km S of San José del ... > at least to predict that a quake we see is likely to be a precursor to a much larger one or is likely that peak. That we can basically do. "Observations show that the chance of an earthquake being followed by a larger one nearby and within a week is about 5%." https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-probability-earthquake-a-fore... It is an incredibly safe bet that any earthquake is not the sign of a larger one.
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gpm 13 days ago [–]

5% within a week is a very high set of odds for such rare events. Or to look at it from the other more relevant direction 70% of magnitude 7 or larger quakes have detected foreshocks...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreshock

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