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Which makes the headline quite clever in this case, since people will assume that means they aren't wrong, when in fact it means they aren't _always_ wrong.


Not sure it's so clever because I completed it as "not always wrong but often wrong", which their graph in the article seems to confirm.

Mainstream predictions are easy, usually it means predicting status-quo. It's the out-of-consensus that matters (right 2 quadrants) and it looks like they are slightly worse than 50/50 on those.

Props for publishing it though.




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