Progress happens in a series of S-curves. While your observation is correct that advances occur initially rapidly then taper off, the next step tends to arrive sooner than the previous, and with greater magnitude [1]. Tim Urban's article from 2015 has a great explanation of this phenomenon [2].

[1]: https://ourworldindata.org/technology-long-run

[2]: https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revol...