Stagflation or vibecession? Surveys say people feel down about the economy, but their spending says otherwise.

I don't think "U.S. Jobs Disappear At Fastest January Pace Since Great Recession"[1] is vibes.

The future picture on inflation also looks bleak[2]:

> Taken individually, lagged tariff pass‑through, tightening labor supply, looser fiscal policy, and accommodative financial conditions would each push inflation modestly higher. Taken together—and interacting with increasingly fragile household inflation expectations—they create a macro environment in which inflation rising above 4 percent by the end of 2026 is not only plausible but arguably the most likely scenario.

It's common knowledge that the spending in the current economy is very K-shaped: the top 10% are the only ones staying above water.

[1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikestunson/2026/02/05/us-jobs-...

[2] https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2026/risk-high...

Obviously not a macroeconomic analysis but if you watch YouTube channels like Caleb Hammer it seems people are literally spending their life away. No planning, no asset building, just hedonistic stuff. The kind of people you see there have the mentality of: "I'll never pay this debt down anyway so I'll max out my loans to do what I want before I die". Not very optimistic, even if it inflates the consumer market.

I don't think you can draw any conclusion about the economic health of the entire population from a small number of cherry-picked cases so egregious that a YouTuber deemed entertaining enough to turn them into monetized videos.

I can tell you about the people around me making below median income and still raising families, but it would not be interesting enough for YouTube.

Youtube is entertainment designed to get clicks, and the algorithm enhances biases. Fox news hosts would likely be youtubers if they started their careers today.

The rich cheat taxes with "Buy, Borrow, Die". It's only fair the poor should have their own strategy.

I hope that when I die, people say about me, 'Boy, that guy sure owed me a lot of money.'

- Jack Handey

A great example of what seems to be the current ethos for the generation (I realize Handey isn't of this generation). Very much "nothing matters as we'll all die anyway, who cares about what comes after". I don't fault the sentiment, to be clear, it's just an indication of the socio-economic situation that fostered it.

Spending is up in the top 10% and down in the bottom 90%. Average spending is up, median spending is down, adjusted for inflation.

Look into Doom spending. Excessive spending is actually a psychological response to hardship for consumers in 1st world countries. It's a documented phenomenon that has happened in the past and is exacerbated by social media, gamification of wealth, and general incompetence (all of which are on the uptrend).

Those 2 groups are increasingly separate populations.

I personally think we'll end up in a depression.

With Trump appointing himself Fed chair after jpow's term is over get ready for jazz hands more unprecedented times!