This article completely ignores the concept of mindshare. Which equates to how many people are thinking about a product, and thus how many people are more likely to buy that product someday. In 2010 Nokia's mindshare was slim to none and slim was heading out of town. He tries to make it sound like Nokia was doing well then but it may have been doing well in the moment, but we all know what the derivative was.
My opinion: Nokia is fine. They have a good business strategy in their new smartphone pillar that I strongly believe will work. Why? Because it's a two pronged strategy. They're selling performant inexpensive smartphone like the Lumia 510 in the developing world that will be retailing for $150 (off contract!). While they're doing this to increase their marketshare, they're making high end 'hero' devices like the Lumia 920 that will ship in the developed world and increase mindshare. Its unrealistic to expect a 'breakthrough' in western markets because many customers are entrenched into certain ecosystems and are difficult to move. That said, mindshare is easier to get, and if you can convince people that your stuff is cool, you can start to slowly nibble away at the western markets. Nokia is fine. Elop is fine. I'm tired of all of this doomsday predicting crap.
From an American persoective, yes. Nokia was a titan everywhere but in American smartphones. They owned the low end, the owned the high end, and they owned everywhere in between.
Now they have completely lost the script on smartphones and are losing their grip on the dumb phones that have paid the bills for more than a decade.
It's hard to imagine nowadays, but in the late 1990's, Nokia made cell phones Americans craved. Their blunder in the US market was to think they didn't have to get in bed with specific carriers and make phones exclusive to one or another. A titan the world over, Nokia was surely surprised at how effectively they could be diminished by the business model the US carriers settled on. They never recovered in the US, and I don't think they ever will.
I'm not as close to Nokia as you, so can you explain where Nokia lost the script on smart phones?
I ask because I pre-ordered a 920 off-contract on the basis of a number of features unavailable anywhere else -
- Offline maps, search and navigation
- PureView/OSI camera
- Being able to use the phone wearing gloves
- Wireless charging
There are a number of other reasons I chose to pre-order the 920 without knowing what it'll cost. UEFI. Knowing that the phone won't come with some crazy manufacturer's interpretation of a UI skin. Knowing that no manufacturer or network operator will include bloatware that can't be uninstalled without rooting the phone, or being forced to use iTunes.
I've no doubt it's a great phone, and those are all good features.
But it's late, it's not shipping today, it's only on one carrier in the USA (odd considering capturing the American premium smartphone market was the whole rationale for 'Burning Platforms'), it's based on an ecosystem that's still a distant third-to-fifth in many metrics, and it's part of a brand that's struggling mightily to mean anything in the minds of customers.
Nokia's late 00's Symbian lineup wasn't necessarily competitive with the premium side of the market, but it was quite competitive in the lower tiers and was still selling like gangbusters in the lower-grade markets. Publicly throwing them all out overnight was an extraordinarily bad move that suffocated Nokia just as they needed cash to compete more than ever before. Their ASPs dropped like a rock, carriers told them to fuck off now that they had a legitimate and thriving alternative (Android 2.x), and the idea of Nokia being a vendor of status phones evaporated overnight. One great phone isn't going to fix their situation.
I don't see a reason to go with anything else than the 920. The exclusivity thing is a bummer for US users for sure, but that will be short-lived, if my sources are correct.
I disagree about the lateness. That's dependent on the release of Windows Phone 8 by Microsoft. You may argue that the announcement a month ago was too early, but the counter argument to that is that Nokia is growing mindshare.
I think Nokia's big chance is the apps they're providing. No other manufacturer produces apps as useful as Nokia. We know Maps and Drive will now be available on all WP8 devices, but there's City Lens, free streaming music, Nokia Transport, Nokia Xpress...
Android was never an option for Nokia, given Nokia Maps. As we know from many sources, Symbian was dead in the water, and awesome as it is, the N9 wasn't competitive with iOS and Android (there being even fewer 3rd-party apps today than Windows Phone went live with).
As for one great phone not fixing anything for them? Not sure. It worked for Samsung. Sure, that doesn't mean it'll work for Nokia. But predicting where this goes is like predicting the weather. I've owned every smart phone of Nokia's starting with the 9000 Communicator, and ending with the N900. I'm optimistic.
Elop is playing a long game, and his strategy makes sense to me. The 920 will, by all accounts, be the most innovative device when it's released later this month.
Just curious, why did Maps make Android not an option? Samsung bundles their own apps with their skin of Android. Is there something that prevented Nokia from doing so too?
>there being even fewer 3rd-party apps today than Windows Phone went live with
Well that's just a silly comparison to make given that the Meego was pronounced dead before the N9 was even released.
2. There's already news on other carriers having it (or a very similar phone).
3. Their new featurephones are supposedly selling well now (Asha).
4. Their strategy isn't just one phone. In terms of phones there's a range at all price points, however Nokia has other lines of business that are doing well (e.g. Navigation, patent licensing).
I wouldn't be quick to keep saying it'll only be on one carrier... We saw what stunts nokia is pulling with giving AT&T exclusivity on the 820 and then proceeding to give exclusivity of variants of the 820 to other carriers. There's no saying they won't do the same with the 920.
When I decided to switch from an iPhone 3GS to an Android, I just went to the first store I saw and bought one. That was over a year ago. No preorder necessary.
It's a first gen Galaxy S, it did came with some bloatware on it. Never bothered me though, plus because it's an Android I was able to install Android 4 on it, even though Samsung doesn't support it.
I would love offline maps, but I also cannot give up GMaps.
Selling something for $150 off-contract isn't anything to get excited about when the developing world (India and China mainly) already has huge market penetration from the likes of Samsung, ZTE, SE etc. - they are all selling equally capable phones at similar price point.
I.E. the situation is not very different from western markets - Samsung/Sony/ZTE already have a mindshare there at low and high end - even if you forget the low end iPhones. Plus to Nokia's detriment, Samsung can always release their "better" $150 Windows Phone in those markets.
Also the app situation isn't changing - at this point they really needed the app development scene nailed - Microsoft hasn't even released the SDK for WP8. Developing world is not somehow going to ignore that and spend $150 buying a dumb phone replacement.
Selling something for $150 off-contract isn't anything to get excited about when the developing world (India and China mainly) already has huge market penetration from the likes of Samsung, ZTE, SE etc.
Actually, $150 is waaaay too high for the developing world. You can get a kinda-OK Android phone for half that in places like Brazil.
They're obviously going to keep pushing lower and lower price points. This is just the beginning. But the point is that android phones you get for 150$ or less off contract are rough, very rough. If you can offer someone a phone that's a wee bit more but that is so much more performant, you can sway them over. But that said, this is just the beginning. You'll see Nokia push even lower price points later.
Actually, smooth performance is something very few consumers in the developing world actually care about. I bought an android phone for ~$130 in 2010. It ran eclair. Now it runs the latest version of gingerbread. I never really felt it's performance was a deal breaker at any point. And consequently, the galaxy Y duos, a gingerbread phone that retails for ~$160 today, runs pretty smooth. Here's a video of it http://www.youtube.com/watch?gl=US&v=qZdAbI0ZMuE It's performance is really good enough and something most consumers would buy.
Now in China, the mainstream mid-end Android phones from local brands price at $150 or so. Less and less people buy Symbian and feature phones. And Windows Phone only has very small market share, maybe 3%. Nokia is dying.
Nokia's sales have collapsed. It's not "doomsaying" at this point-- more like "doom observing."
The only real assets they have left are their patents and their NAVTEQ division (whatever they're calling it now). Now would be a good time for them to break up the company, sell those assets, and maybe manage to return something back to the shareholders.
On the other hand, if you still think it's "fine," then you should buy some Nokia stock.
My opinion: Nokia is fine. They have a good business strategy in their new smartphone pillar that I strongly believe will work. Why? Because it's a two pronged strategy. They're selling performant inexpensive smartphone like the Lumia 510 in the developing world that will be retailing for $150 (off contract!). While they're doing this to increase their marketshare, they're making high end 'hero' devices like the Lumia 920 that will ship in the developed world and increase mindshare. Its unrealistic to expect a 'breakthrough' in western markets because many customers are entrenched into certain ecosystems and are difficult to move. That said, mindshare is easier to get, and if you can convince people that your stuff is cool, you can start to slowly nibble away at the western markets. Nokia is fine. Elop is fine. I'm tired of all of this doomsday predicting crap.