As someone not in the field it's hard to distinguish the "quantum startup raised x billions, claims quantum computing x years away" from "fusion startup raised x billions, claims fusion power x years away" headlines every few months for the past 10+ years.

Headlines like these are the outliers to the trend that thus appear more credible to me personally: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45238481

Thanks for the link. I skimmed through the report that the article is based on. It tracks rising activity in quantum computing R&D in several areas. But at least in the executive summary, I didn't see anything about commercial applications one way or the other. It doesn't seem to make any predictions?

So, it's odd that the article summarized it that way.

> Overall, quantum processing units (QPUs) are making impressive progress in performance, but they remain far from meeting the requirements for running large-scale commercial applications such as chemical simulations or cryptanalysis.

Page 6 it's a quote