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> I think a better justification for it is depth of experience and knowledge being lost

My favourite example from Adam Smith remains the nail maker. At the time, London factories were churning out iron nails by the bushel, whereas the provincial Scottish blacksmith was able to craft perhaps 10 in a day.

Is it so terrible that no one these days knows how to make nails? That our physical and mental capabilities are put to more productive ends?

That’s how I see these skill sets ‘lost’, national security related industries notwithstanding.



Factories need the 10 nails a day option, because factory tooling is custom, and tooling for high-tech has extremely low tolerances, so those 10 nails need to be custom and perfect. Often they also need to be certified/constantly calibrated by the nail maker.

When I was in aerospace management decided to move our fixture guy to a part time contractor instead of meeting him on his salary increase request. Almost every step of the factory other than some sub-assemblies were dependant on the fixtures, the fixtures needed to be constantly re-calibrated, etc. And there was no other fixture guy in the area. We fired like the most important person in the entire factory and hoped he'd stick around for part time contract work. I was no longer working there before it happened, but the first time a fixture needed calibration but he had other contract work, that whole section of the line is down at like $200,000 a day until he can come in. Like OK you scheduled him for the normal maintenance, but what happens when a forklift hits a fixture and he's off at some new clients site for 3 weeks? Or the AC goes out and the heat takes everything out of tolerance before you get it cooled off again.

And with JIT manufacturing having fixtures down throws off the schedule AND you don't have capacity to catch back up because you have capacity for the barest minimum you can get away with. These guys are very very important and yes it is terrible if we don't have their skills available on demand.


The management thinking from your example seemed very natural and not so surprising after all. They just needed someone with a "just in case" mindset, similar to the tailor from one of my favorite scenes/movies "The Hudsucker Proxy" - "The Double Stitch" [0]. I even sometimes act like that character. For example, when the boss says we will drop a feature, I don’t fully kill it, instead, I temporarily disable it because the chances of it coming back are not zero.

[0]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LM5DiHYfKfM


That kind of management is pervasive across the economy and it's why I'm amazed anything still works at all.


That management philosophy is one of the reasons that the US lost its dominance in auto manufacturing and market share, in my opinion.


Carry your example far enough and the system becomes brittle. We need people who know how to make the machines that make the machines. If you go far enough up the stack components become unique enough that they're unique pieces of engineering.


Correct. Every component made in distant factories all over the world is like micro services model of software development where every function should be its own service.

There is big support of these models from consulting world. If it doesn't work than it just means we need further micro components to make it work but never try back to integrated system.


The problem is that the idiots making their stupid cog in the machine decisions have a financial and ideological incentive not to see themselves, their work and the way they've been trained to approach their work.

Some two bit code monkey screeching "it's not my fault my code shit all over the production database when something upstream of it got a little wonky, I coded to the spec I was given" is no different than some dumbass middle manager or MBA at HQ who's intentionally making the system more shitty for negligible, but measurable, savings so they can fuck off into the sunset with their bonus for hitting KPI before it all comes crashing down.


The meta problem is the present-immaterial nature of risk and possible future consequences. Dollars and time saved are concrete present quantities.

Ergo, any decision which saves dollars and time in the present but increases future risk looks good... in the present.

It's always surprised me that businesses don't attempt to quantify risk in an effort to produce a more balanced decision function.


10 nails per day seems way too low. Alec Steele, a blacksmith Youtuber, made 500 in one livestream.


Alec used modern equipment and high quality 6mm bar stock. It would’ve taken far longer to make 500 nails starting from a large bar of medieval pig iron and using only a traditional coal-fired forge with hammer and anvil.




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