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So, in summary: the price of a new car has gone up a lot but wages have not, especially if you're young. I'm pretty confident that this might be a factor in why young people aren't buying new cars.

You're probably right, but that doesn't lead to a conclusion that the effect is caused by the economy.

In absolute dollars, cars are more expensive than they used to be, but for your dollar, you get much more car. That is, there are more features (stereo, A/C, power everything), more safety (both structurally as well as ABS, better restraints, etc.), more reliability, and much greater life expectancy [1] from a modern car. In short, it's a better investment.

If you've got enough money to meet the minimum threshold for buying a new car, you're going to get more for your money than you did in 1980. But that minimum threshold has definitely been raised. Part of this is from consumer demand; part of it (particularly in areas related to safety or emissions) is government mandated.

So it looks to me like the car market just evolved itself out of the reach of many young people.

[1] We just got a new car for the wife, trading in her old car at 200,000 miles. My car has 128,000 and is still running strong. In this age those numbers are expected; back then, a 200K mile car would be a minor miracle.



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