Give a 50% overhead and make the cab driver's cost $15 an hour. I used to pay about $50 for a half hour cab ride from LAX to Westwood, tip and surcharge subtracted, call it $40. I would still find a "no driver" taxi ride for $30 expensive.
The point I am trying to get at is that the economies of traditional taxi companies and future "robo-taxi" companies will not be all that different. Taxi companies will not be repairing cars. They already buy large fleets of cars. Also keep in mind that the taxi industry itself is regulated. Recall Udemey's issues in DC with the taxi lobby.
I do think Google will can be successful in the automotive industry, I just don't buy that they will be doing so by attempting to take down other existing industries. Google is entering a space that is much different than the web or electronic hardware. They have so much trouble breaking into the living room, not sure why you think they will make it to the driveway so quickly.
On (5), I meant a decrease in parking revenue is not necessarily a bad thing for a city. Easier parking also means less barriers to a purchase.
Good luck with this argument. I ran it on an earlier HN thread about the cost of a driver being only a small portion of the cost of a cab. But people don't want to listen. They think because they hand a driver a $50 note, the driver makes all the money.
Taxis cost money because of (a) running costs (b) finance/depreciation costs and (c) regulatory costs. (a) and (b) isn't going anywhere, and (c) certainly is not.
Drivers are only a small part of the picture. Removing them won't dramatically alter costs or availability.
Give a 50% overhead and make the cab driver's cost $15 an hour. I used to pay about $50 for a half hour cab ride from LAX to Westwood, tip and surcharge subtracted, call it $40. I would still find a "no driver" taxi ride for $30 expensive.
OK, now factor in lower insurance premiums...
Now cut the price of the car in half (no front seats, steering column, etc needed)...
Now cut out the pay for the time cabbies spend waiting for calls
Now cut the fleet size by 75% (better utilization due to intelligent routing, cabs never sleep, etc)
I have a feeling there are a bunch more ways this will get a lot cheaper...
>Now cut the price of the car in half (no front seats, steering column, etc needed)...
You're kidding, right? steering column, steering wheel + pedals cost a fraction of the cost of a car. That's assuming they aren't left in there for manual override (parking ,etc).
Front seats? Where are the passengers going to sit? Taking away 1 driver seat will just mean 1 more person capacity, which wouldn't affect revenue because very few cab calls are 1 seat over, resulting in two cabs.
Now that you've saved $500 on the cost of the cab by taking out the steering wheel (or making it removable) now add in the $x,000 worth of sensors.
>Now cut out the pay for the time cabbies spend waiting for calls
At $10/hr, the most you're going to pay for a cabbie sitting around all shift is $120. Which doesn't happen, because cab companies already effectively model utilisation patterns.
>Now cut the fleet size by 75%
Cab fleet size is dictated by peak usage patterns as a function of revenue, not by drivers.
Cabs can be autonomously profitable - many cities have privately owned cabs. The fixed costs of running a cab company are actually quite low in comparison to the marginal costs per cab.
Your 30 minute trip would cost €8.70 ($10.72). This rate includes everything, even insuring the driver, which I presume could get cheaper if these cars were all driverless. Driverless dispatching (instead of me having to find one on my phone and walk to it) could raise the utilization rate, and thus lower costs.
At the moment I believe these cars are given free/discounted parking in Amsterdam to encourage their usage. I can imagine that changing at some point, but I wouldn't factor that into my calculations as it's pretty easy to disrupt parking fees when all of your cars are driverless and highly utilized.
Give a 50% overhead and make the cab driver's cost $15 an hour. I used to pay about $50 for a half hour cab ride from LAX to Westwood, tip and surcharge subtracted, call it $40. I would still find a "no driver" taxi ride for $30 expensive.
The point I am trying to get at is that the economies of traditional taxi companies and future "robo-taxi" companies will not be all that different. Taxi companies will not be repairing cars. They already buy large fleets of cars. Also keep in mind that the taxi industry itself is regulated. Recall Udemey's issues in DC with the taxi lobby.
I do think Google will can be successful in the automotive industry, I just don't buy that they will be doing so by attempting to take down other existing industries. Google is entering a space that is much different than the web or electronic hardware. They have so much trouble breaking into the living room, not sure why you think they will make it to the driveway so quickly.
On (5), I meant a decrease in parking revenue is not necessarily a bad thing for a city. Easier parking also means less barriers to a purchase.