Self driving cars have the ability to increase the number of passenger miles driven.
The auto industry profitability depends on passenger miles - less miles, less cars + parts, less revenue.
Google isn't going to get into the car assembly business. One or more of the innovative car firms will just licence the self drive technology into an existing platform as a first step.
Car makers themselves have been experimenting with this stuff for decades. If you google around you'll find BMWs doing high speed laps of race circuits with no drivers.
A modern S-Class Benz can literally drive itself already - it has brake assist, lane assist, steering assist, parking assist and radar guided cruise control. It knows where it is going and how long it will take to get there. The driver really is only a small part of the driving equation in a car like this.
Why would Google license the tech when they could buy Tesla (TSLA market cap is $3 BB; CHEAP for the value they deliver) and turn out Google cars themselves? They then control the entire ecosystem, similar to Android, versus having to cede control to car companies who drag ass on innovation.
This is what I was thinking earlier today, and it makes a lot of sense. Google would have an opportunity to enter the automobile market very quickly and use its technology on all Tesla cars. The major problem to me is that a company like Tesla only manufactures more expensive cars, and as a result Google would be targeting a small percentage of the population initially with this move.
Actually Android is a counterexample--Google doesn't control the entire Android ecosystem, and they do have to cede control to phone manufacturers, who cede control to carriers, who drag ass on innovation, which is why you can buy a brand new phone today that has a years-old version of Android running on it and loads of crapware.
Google went from zero to making a large amount of computer hardware in a decade, partly through using the large existing contract manufacturing chain. The auto industry is not entirely different: Bosch, Rotax, ZF, etc would all design and build parts for Google...
I agree but Auto industry is not about car manufacturers. Players like auto insurance companies (who constitute billions of dollars in market cap) will not fade easily.
The auto industry profitability depends on passenger miles - less miles, less cars + parts, less revenue.
Google isn't going to get into the car assembly business. One or more of the innovative car firms will just licence the self drive technology into an existing platform as a first step.
Car makers themselves have been experimenting with this stuff for decades. If you google around you'll find BMWs doing high speed laps of race circuits with no drivers.
A modern S-Class Benz can literally drive itself already - it has brake assist, lane assist, steering assist, parking assist and radar guided cruise control. It knows where it is going and how long it will take to get there. The driver really is only a small part of the driving equation in a car like this.