They perform several model runs with slightly different configurations and then ... | Hacker News

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zuzun on Oct 23, 2023 | parent | context | favorite | on: We're entering a pretty strong El Niño

They perform several model runs with slightly different configurations and then compare the predictions to a reference period, currently 1991-2020. When they say "above average", most model runs fell in the upper tercile of the reference period and the probability is derived from the fraction.

nerdponx on Oct 23, 2023 [–]

Thanks, is there a summary of this methodology somewhere? Some established climate forecasting textbook? A good literature review?

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