Apparently there was a lot of 2008 style "ignoring the fundamentals" going on in the auto lending industry because the banks had tightened up the home lending market and the stupid money needed a new place to go. There is the further instability from the government loan crisis in China combined with continuing zero-COVID lockdowns hurting production. However, I think the China problems are being hugely overblown in the west. China is still a net exporter and has a trade surplus to throw at problems. Unbelievably credulous predictions that the Chinese government is going to topple on its own in the next few months are just plain out of touch.
> Unbelievably credulous predictions that the Chinese government is going to topple on its own in the next few months are just plain out of touch.
Isn't that just a straw man? Most serious reporting on China are just predicting a substantial slow down in growth (or even recession), which is what is playing out right now. Chinese emigration rates, which were dropping for many years before, are actually growing again (mostly due to zero COVID and lagging economic growth).
A slowdown is inevitable. The "china miracle" was loads of debt fueled spending to pump the books, but they still have 1.4 billion people who are still near the bottom of the S curve for domestic consumption. Even the dubious official figures showed a slowdown in growth.
You can always cherry pick sources (especially with google search!). But it is a logical fallacy to discount a serious WSJ or NYT report by quoting some unrelated Gorden Chang or EpochTimes article on the web (for example). That is effectively how the strawman logical fallacy works.
China has gone through stealth recessions before when I was living there (GDP growth on paper, but job growth and other indicators clearly in trouble on the ground). They might be going through one now, I'm not sure, but an official recession and housing bubble burst is really due (the latter being necessary for long term health, and even the former useful for getting rid of a lot of unproductive activities).
Not a single link on that search, the first page at least, says the Chinese government is going to topple on its own.
I have never read a mainstream article that says China will collapse. They are a juggernaut that will continue to achieve impressive goals. What seem to be agreed is that they will face significant challenges, and overtaking the US is not a foregone conclusion.
