An uncanny feeling came over me as I was leaving a diner. My eye caught a table with a married couple (who couldn't have been more than a few years out of high school) and a toddler. They managed to look tired, but happy; moreover, they seemed to have things under control. It was like a breeze from a different century.
It's probably that the social context has changed so much. You're not going to have a single high-school-educated income buying a house and supporting the entire family from it. People have thanked Reagan's economic policies for pushing women into the workplace -- a change that took place out of necessity since a single income no longer sufficed for most people.
So what happens when young people realize the game has changed? Do they get married right out of high school, buy a house, and start a family? Or are we talking about going to uni, drowning in debt, and being priced out of the housing market?
The era of dual earner marriages is over. Let me back up a bit and hedge with acknowledging the real danger in extrapolating from current trends, but let's indulge and while relying on some data.
We're in the early formation of yet another stage of family conceptualization. As the corporate family economy declined over the latter half of the 19th century and early 20th century, the male breadwinner marriage declined from the 1930s-1980, the decline of the dual earner family is beginning its decline[1]. This is complicated with the decline of marriage in general, and marriage itself complicated with dramatically increasing age and rates of divorce.
Male labor force participation has declined from 86% in 1950 to 69% in 2019[2]. Over the same time period women's labor force participation rate rose from 33% to 57%[3]. Simultaneously, the rates of co-habitation continue to rise (0.1 in 1968 to 9.4% in 2018)[4] and outpacing spousal living after 2010(among 18-24yr olds). Disability and addition are prevalent in non-labor force participating(LFP) males[5].
The Richmond Fed's report Male Labor Force Participation: Patterns and Trends describes the relationship.
> Many of those receiving disability payments via Social Security are receiving them for ailments such as mental health disorders and disorders that occur due to
long-term obesity and drug or alcohol abuse. Data from the Social Security Disability Program’s 2019 annual report show that 35 percent of Social Security Disability beneficiaries are disabled due to a mental health disorder, with mood disorders most common. An additional 30 percent of beneficiaries have disabilities associated with a musculoskeletal disorder, many of which are due to obesity.
Extrapolating from this we can imagine a world 20-30 years from now where a majority of households are formed under the cohabitation of unmarried partners. The woman here is likely the breadwinner, although all forms of male breadwinner and dual earner households still remain. The unemployed male may be receiving social security for a mental or musculoskeletal disorder due to obesity or drug or alcohol abuse.
While not an optimistic version of the future, there's still the opportunity to be proven wrong, argue about causes, and explore second-order effects within the larger picture all thanks to the magic of extrapolitis.
There are many non-exclusive reasons: companionship, protection, unpaid labor, income, and role-expectations.
Detailing the last three, unpaid labor can look like child care, errand running, home repair, and house work(and while men generally spend less time than women doing this, it isn't zero[1]). Female breadwinner households include male gig work ex: 77% of ride share drivers are male[2]. That's a way of saying that the men in these relationships are not contributing - they can be - just not at a level to be considered a dual earner.
Lastly, let's not discount gender and role expectations. If you are male, have you asked the women in your life if they have been pressured to not be single by their family or peers? Did others have expectations of them? What were their responses?
In my social network, I can name plenty of women who are living with men who engage in drug abuse, alcohol abuse, and have mental disorders, sometimes more than one. I instinctively caricature this type, which makes it more difficult for me to identify these cases, but substance abuse, mental disorders, or physical disorders don't automatically render people homeless, insane, or invalid. They all can, however, make it much more difficult to hold down a steady job or result in under employment.
Nonetheless, some women accept these challenges, while others they regret the pressure they faced or decisions they made in entering these relationships. The effort required to enter and exit relationships is asymmetrical. There is some stickiness to the whole affair even within cohabitating unmarried couples. Deciding to live alone is a serious choice.
It's probably that the social context has changed so much. You're not going to have a single high-school-educated income buying a house and supporting the entire family from it. People have thanked Reagan's economic policies for pushing women into the workplace -- a change that took place out of necessity since a single income no longer sufficed for most people.
So what happens when young people realize the game has changed? Do they get married right out of high school, buy a house, and start a family? Or are we talking about going to uni, drowning in debt, and being priced out of the housing market?