Given the roadmap there, I'd say that the wait won't be terribly long. I have been very impressed with the turnaround times on new versions of MVC so far.
The feature that seems most likely to cause issues with a release would be Recipes because of their connection to NuGet. I'd expect to see a pretty feature complete CTP without that first, with the complete implementation being spread across one or two more.
I have no inside line on this, but I've been working with it since v1 so I follow it pretty closely.
I thought it had been re-branded as BUILD this year (and was going to have a massive Windows 8 focus). I've seen some reports of "PDC 2011" but then the dates and location are the same as build....unless they're going to run to conferences concurrently, which I doubt.
Correct. There is no separate PDC this year. The focus of Build at least in the promotion is definitely on Windows 8, who knows to what extent that reflects the content.