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I'm normally a fan of Paul's essays, but this one felt a little forced. Maybe not enough "essayer", too much agenda?


Absolutely. Particularly strained bits:

Sounds like a good plan. Let's think about the optimal way to do this.

Disagreeing by agreeing is a powerful technique. But it's pretty obvious in this case. I prefer disagreeing head on, if I have a solid argument.

They want enough money that (a) they don't have to worry about running out of money and (b) they can spend their time how they want. Running your own business offers neither.

I have a friend who "ran his own business" for 4 years while doing his medical degree, and accumulated over a million dollars in the process. That's not enough to change your lifestyle to be like the mega-rich, but it's certainly enough to gain the freedom to spend your time the way you want it. Think of it this way: $1m gives you at least enough money to spend 10 comfortable years doing other stuff and figuring out what else you really want to do.

And as anyone who runs their own business can tell you, that requires your complete attention.

That's not true for all businesses. I have a business that I haven't paid attention to for over 9 months and it's still generating revenues (couple of thousand dollars a month). Sure, revenues go down, but even with minimal maintenance you can keep them dropping reasonably slowly.

There will of course be some founders who wouldn't like that idea: the ones who like running their company so much that there's nothing else they'd rather do. _But this group must be small_.

Why must it be small? Maybe this group is much larger than the other. Where's the evidence, or even argument, that it must be small? It seems to me there are far more people running IT businesses than people starting up in the valley. I would think actually the number of people who enjoy running an online business must be large.

I could go on, but this comment will turn into a rant. I'm quite disappointed in this one. When DHH gave his presentation I thought it was quite interesting that Startup School was hosting a talk that went directly against their principles ("make something ppl want and don't worry about the money", for example), and I was curious what pg's answer would be. I'm not convinced by this answer. It seems weak and somewhat dishonest.


When DHH gave his presentation I thought it was quite interesting that Startup School was hosting a talk that went directly against their principles

I get "This video is not available" for DHH's presentation: http://omnisio.com/startupschool08/david-heinemeier-hansson-...


Weird, works fine here...


It's working for me now, too.


I have observed Paul Graham making bold statements with no apparent backing whatsoever in the past (see my blog http://neh2.wordpress.com for a few examples); your quotes here are just more of the same. Oh well.


I can't wait for DHH's re-rebuttal on SvN on Friday. :)

If 37s has doubled revenue for the last 4 or 5 years while hiring 2-3 extra people, I'm pretty sure they're not far from walking away whenever they want. Or they could just work 4 days a week and have the company pay for their cooking and Tai Chi classes while still retaining full control. That still sounds like a better deal to me.


None of them are walk-awayable. (At least from the original core) They're fully aware of this, and they've mitigated that fact by not expanding, so that as they bring in more money, they're able to continue to divvy it up between the same core group (or thereabouts).

Their reward is making the company fit the lifestyle they choose to have as much as possible, instead of selling out. I agree that this is very appealing.


Why do you think they couldn't walk away? Sure, if Basecamp doesn't get an update for years, it will go down. But that will take some time. Imagine Basecamp is making $1m a year of revenues, and they stop maintaining it and marketing it. It's still a useful product, until someone build something better and cheaper. Even then, people are usually slow to switch. They could easiy make $800k in the year after they stop maintaining it. Then $500k the following. Then $200k the following. Probably some people would keep on paying for several years because they're used to it. That's not bad for not putting any work in it.


I evaluate being able to "walk away" as being able to maintain the status quo indefinitely. The slow revenue reduction that you are describing is applicable to any business model with a recurring revenue set up. Sure it's not bad, but the company begins to die the moment they leave.


You can't walk away from investments either by that definition.

There's an old Romanian saying:

The cow grows fat under the eye of the farmer.

Investments are just another business model with recurring revenues. It begins to die the moment you stop managing it. You can get a professional manager for that too - but they too require attention.


They've made so much money that they could walk away, let it die, and still be richer than most successful startup founders. Just think of the HotOrNot guys - who cares if it dies if you've already pulled $5 million apiece out of it?


I'm sorry, but I'm not getting your argument. What does investing have to do with whether or not 37Signals' founders can walk away from their business?


I'm saying that with your definition of "walking away" (can stop giving a shit and the income still comes steady forever), not even people who do sell their company can walk away. All they're doing is shifting from a business that they love and have poured their hearts into (their startup) to one which they may well hate and which they may know nothing about (investment management).

Both require attention to thrive.


A standard ING account is at 4% right now. on $5M, that's $200K.

What exactly do you have to manage again?


Watch out for the inflation rate! If inflation is at 4% your ING account is worthless and you're spending down your principal in real terms.

Believe me, I've been thinking a lot about that recently.

That said, your point is taken: There is some amount of money where you can set up some fairly risk-free, static investments and take out $X every year indefinitely. Just make sure you do a little more thinking upfront about how much money that is, and what static investments those are.


TIPS or I-bonds would seem to be the prototypical example: they guarantee a certain real rate of return (about 2% when I looked a couple years ago, though I heard it's gone negative with the credit crunch), so if you've got $10M or so you're guaranteed your $200k. Only thing you have to worry about is a government default, but if they do that, you have bigger problems to worry about than what happened to your money.


I evaluate being able to "walk away" as having the kind of FU money pg says founders get from an acquisition.

By my math, pg made between $10-$30 million. I don't know what his cut of the $50 million was, but Stan Reiss (?) from Startup School 2005 said the Yahoo stock value went up from $50mil to $750 mil, so whatever pg kept in Yahoo stock went up by 15x. We don't know how much Yahoo he kept post-crash, but I'd peg him still over $5mil, maybe up to $30mil if he's Mark Cuban savvy. I don't think the 37s guys have accumulated that much, but I'd bet they have more than any YC alum (so far - we'll look again when YC is 5 years old).


Ah, I had a different view of "walk away" then. I was thinking more of a "hit by a bus" analogy.

Using your definition, I don't think walking away is something anyone on that team is interested in doing. They're already living in their "walk away" phase.



Excellent response. It perfectly distills the difference between Paul's claims and DHH's (and my) perspective.


I don't understand why expansion equals freedom - can you explain your logic?

If they can walk away that easily (i.e. they are replacable), do the founders add value anyway?


This is for swombat too - if revenue has grown 15-30 times since '04 as DHH said at Startup School, and headcount went up by 30%, then that's still 10-20x the revenue per employee.

Costs: Can't be too much more, certainly not nearly matching the revenue growth. They do their own advertising and marketing so that's free. Infrastructure costs are higher because of more accounts, so let's count that as the cost of 7 employees, giving them double the costs. And with extra benefits for employees, put it up to 2.5x of 2004 expenses. total.

The profit picture gets even more ridiculous. If they had 5% margins in 2004, their costs go up by 2.5 and revenues go up by 15, then their profit is over 250x over 2004. Divide that by 3(?) founders/principals and you get a lot per year. Heck, it's still a lot if you divide it by all 12 employees.

37s is probably making more profit annually than most startup founders will ever sell a company for. If they pocket a part of that a year, then they have the equivalent cash to a liquidity event plus they still have the company. Granted, they're exceptionally successful, but hopefully these numbers will open some eyes for people that look down on lifestyle businesses.


I totally agree with this analysis--it looks like they have a ton of money. But that just makes the investment they took from Bezos look even more strange. Any ideas on that?


I think the answer to that is - they didn't take the invenstement from Bezos for the money alone - they did it for the business advice and contacts they could get from him through the investment relationship. IIRC, this was stated, possibly by Jason Fried, on another somewhat recent 37Signals blog post.


A typo - I meant "investment".


While it might be more of a derivation than an essay, it was still surprising, and that's one of the best parts of PG's essays.




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