Oh yeah, Access was great for prototyping and I've argued as much here several times. I've built Access prototypes in earlier jobs.
> But the real fix is to simplify web stacks for smaller projects
We've already done that. RoR, Django, ASP.NET MVC, etc. etc. It's super easy to get something working out of the box. But at some point, you still need to understand what your database is doing and optimize for it. Some level of complexity is inescapable.
And you could probably argue that as back-end has gotten simpler, complexity has just expanded to fill the void. Now we expect fancy JS interfaces on top of them, too. And phone apps.
I have no doubt all of the things I mentioned will get simpler, but I can't foresee anything that will make software devs irrelevant in on the immediate horizon. I suppose at some point BAs/PMs (people who gather requirements and draw wireframes) will be able to write code, and we'll start to compete more with skilled BAs. But that's still not the end of the entire profession. Gathering requirements is still hard.
> But the real fix is to simplify web stacks for smaller projects
We've already done that. RoR, Django, ASP.NET MVC, etc. etc. It's super easy to get something working out of the box. But at some point, you still need to understand what your database is doing and optimize for it. Some level of complexity is inescapable.
And you could probably argue that as back-end has gotten simpler, complexity has just expanded to fill the void. Now we expect fancy JS interfaces on top of them, too. And phone apps.
I have no doubt all of the things I mentioned will get simpler, but I can't foresee anything that will make software devs irrelevant in on the immediate horizon. I suppose at some point BAs/PMs (people who gather requirements and draw wireframes) will be able to write code, and we'll start to compete more with skilled BAs. But that's still not the end of the entire profession. Gathering requirements is still hard.