The thing in my eyes that separates bullshitting someone from lying to them is that when you lie, you know what you are saying is probably or definitely false but when you are bullshitting someone, you just don't know if it's definitively true.
Provided a chance to prepare a proper response, one should never bullshit anyone and doing so is quite disrespectful however when put on the spot, sometimes it does more damage to just say "I have no idea" than it does to make an argument based on assumptions.
A piece of advice that I received when I was younger that I've since taken to heart is this:
Never say cop out phrases such as "I think", "maybe", "possibly", and "I hope". The only purpose they serve is to shield you from the consequences of what you say if you are wrong. If you don't want to deal with those consequences, don't be wrong. If you can't answer with a reasonable level of accuracy, the only valid response is something to the effect of "I will find out".
This advice easily was some of the most useful advice I'd received for being able to hold my ground in a professional environment. If you know the answer, say it. If you are willing to bet the answer is true, say it. In all other cases, find out and get back to them. Very few people will press you if you can't answer something and will in most cases see you with more credibility. Nobody has all the answers so why should you have to pretend you do.
In this sense, bullshitting isn't so much about lying, it's just guessing that you are right. Should you do it often? Probably not, but if it's ultimately of low consequence and you believe you are mostly correct, it is only slightly worse than saying something incorrect on accident.
> ‘Never say cop out phrases such as "I think", "maybe", "possibly", and "I hope". The only purpose they serve is to shield you from the consequences of what you say if you are wrong.’
that’s terrible advice, as life is anything but absolute. we make statements all the time that include our degree of confidence in them. they’re still often very informative. you can always tack on an “i will find out” after any of those statements and have the same effect of affirming more definitive follow-up.
Of course life is anything but absolute. We know that as a fundamental aspect of life. The point of avoiding those statements is that they don't add anything of value when used in the best case and in the worst case weakens the strength of the points you are making by sowing uncertainty. Note that expressing degrees of certainty is still fine as long as it actually expresses the degree of certainty. Additionally, note that this is for professional discussions. In everyday speech use whatever is most comfortable but removing these phrases from all aspects of your professional life can be immensely helpful.
As examples:
"I/We think X is (possibly) the cause of Y issue." Why should anyone care that you think X is the cause? Even more so if you only think that it might be or could possibly be the cause? Instead you should be answering "I/We know A, B, and C are happening which all point towards X as the source of Y." The difference is that by avoiding "I think" you are forced to provide a summary of the facts/evidence that brought you to your evidence. If this is too technical for the discussion, you are going into too much detail. In that case, instead go for "We have tracked down a source of issue Y and are taking steps to resolve it." and if necessary go into the externalities of this such as how much time and resources you will need to resolve issue Y. An important differentiation is that this approach to explaining the issue forces you to demonstrate your progress and not just speculate as you either go into details, you don't go into detail and they have faith in your team, or they ask you to explain and you have a neat trail of facts and evidence to detail your progress.
"We've just about wrapped up preparation for the launch and we hope everything goes smoothly." For most people in leadership, this sets off alarm bells. In the back of their heads they are asking "What do you mean we hope everything goes smoothly? What if it doesn't? What then?" It should be evident to everyone in the room that everyone hopes the launch goes smoothly. It may not be the intent but in this case, your expressed hope is suggesting that you haven't prepared for things not going as planned. The alternative is either just dropping off everything after the "and" in that sentence or replacing it with a brief summary of how you've prepared for if things go wrong.
I include these as examples particularly because I've both heard people get bitten by saying these and myself getting bitten by it as well. I would have come up with more examples however I'm too tired to at the moment.
Ultimately the purpose is avoiding meaningless filler, not discrediting your knowledge or performance, and avoiding speculating in such a way that you are dodging responsibility in the case that your speculation was wrong. This is by no means an end all rule but as a habit to train yourself to maintain your appearance and avoid putting your foot in your mouth, it is an excellent tool.
> "Ultimately the purpose is avoiding meaningless filler, not discrediting your knowledge or performance, and avoiding speculating in such a way that you are dodging responsibility ..."
this is a better framing of purpose than the advice provided. as you've laid out, the advice needs too many caveats (i.e., it's too specific) to be so absolute. i generally agree it's better to minimize bullshitting under duress, for reputation, responsibility, or otherwise.
good leadership focuses on laying out purpose, providing examples and intuition, and letting teammates determine the needs and implementation(s). bad leadership tries to distill desires into rules to follow, short-circuiting the creativity needed to adapt to dynamic circumstances.
embracing and adapting to uncertainty is a hallmark of good leadership, and politics (like blaming others), a sign of bad leadership.
> The thing in my eyes that separates bullshitting someone from lying to them is that when you lie, you know what you are saying is probably or definitely false but when you are bullshitting someone, you just don't know if it's definitively true.
This is obviously a false statement, because once you expose bullshit to the ones who provide it, they never go back and say "oh sorry, I did not know it was not true", which makes them de facto liars and they are always well aware of it.
I can't speak for everyone but if someone points out I said something incorrect, I generally respond well to it. Whether I am 100% sure about it or making assumptions, unless I have definitive evidence on hand to make a counterpoint, there's not really a good way to avoid making a fool of yourself other than just honestly listening to what the person has to say.
I may not agree with what they are saying but I might as well take it to heart and reconcile the difference between my and their points after the discussion. In practice I find that assuming Occam's razor works wonders in discussions. In these discussions one of us is wrong but very rarely is it malicious in intent and to be entirely honest, in a professional environment I would rather be wrong than those I am working with/over/under being wrong.
Note: I should clarify that I am by no means a paragon of virtue and open-mindedness and I don't mean to imply that in my post. I have struggled with getting caught up on certain ideas in the past and still struggle with it but I try my best to step back at each chance I get to think "Why do things not add up? What am I missing and why am I stupid for missing it?". It works surprisingly well at knocking the senses back into you.
Provided a chance to prepare a proper response, one should never bullshit anyone and doing so is quite disrespectful however when put on the spot, sometimes it does more damage to just say "I have no idea" than it does to make an argument based on assumptions.
A piece of advice that I received when I was younger that I've since taken to heart is this:
Never say cop out phrases such as "I think", "maybe", "possibly", and "I hope". The only purpose they serve is to shield you from the consequences of what you say if you are wrong. If you don't want to deal with those consequences, don't be wrong. If you can't answer with a reasonable level of accuracy, the only valid response is something to the effect of "I will find out".
This advice easily was some of the most useful advice I'd received for being able to hold my ground in a professional environment. If you know the answer, say it. If you are willing to bet the answer is true, say it. In all other cases, find out and get back to them. Very few people will press you if you can't answer something and will in most cases see you with more credibility. Nobody has all the answers so why should you have to pretend you do.
In this sense, bullshitting isn't so much about lying, it's just guessing that you are right. Should you do it often? Probably not, but if it's ultimately of low consequence and you believe you are mostly correct, it is only slightly worse than saying something incorrect on accident.