> People don't seem to respond well to the quant fund examples, so how about this - how has Warren Buffett consistently beat the market through Berkshire Hathaway? If he ceased beating the market this year, would it because he has been lucky all these years? Would it be because the market conditions that supported his success have fundamentally changed? If so, why does that indicate his performance was due to chance?

People were asking this back during the dotcom boom, when he lagged the market by a huge percentage.

Gotta wonder how many Warrens were unlucky enough to have this happen early on in their careers.