And herein lies the problem. You say Given that you have just been awoken, what are the odds that you were awoken as a result of the coin landing heads?
But the linked post says (ambiguously) When you are awakened, to what degree should you believe that the outcome of the coin toss was Heads?
I don't think your interpretation of the post's question is accurate, but it's worded in vague enough terms that in effect we're arguing about the writer's intent rather than stats.
But the linked post says (ambiguously) When you are awakened, to what degree should you believe that the outcome of the coin toss was Heads?
I don't think your interpretation of the post's question is accurate, but it's worded in vague enough terms that in effect we're arguing about the writer's intent rather than stats.