That's not what people are normally referring to when they say "frontier models". It means the most capable models full stop. Not the most capable that you can run locally.
My understanding is that they're not sure if the vaccine will last in your system for more than 30 years, and that subsequent doses may be less effective, so getting it early may weaken you later.
But I am with you. My personal bet is we'll know more about this by the time that becomes an issue.
The earliest cohorts of vaccinated children are approaching their 30s, so we should learn about long term efficacy this decade.
It's a fair callout, but for me (and increased propensity for Alzheimer's) the calculus is a bit different. Making to to my mid-70s with full mental faculties would easily be worth the tradeoff of an increasing likelihood of shingles at that point. And besides, I would presume I would be able take the vaccine again?
> they're not sure if the vaccine will last in your system for more than 30 years
Vaccines don't really last in your system more than a few days (although some cells get dragged off to the lymph nodes and get harshly interrogated for longer than that). It is the T-cell and B-cell responses that are persistent for years.
> and that subsequent doses may be less effective
They should activate B cells that you already have and produce high-affinity mature antibodies.
Lean is intended by its authors to be also used as a general-purpose programming language. Lean stdlib contains an HTTP server for example.
IMO the biggest problems are the lack of documentation, instability and poor ecosystem. There are user libraries for some programming tasks (e.g. HTTP router, graphics API bindings) but they are mostly proofs of concept and not actively developed or maintained.
Oooh, you mean people turned on sub pixel rendering while running their screen at a non-native resolution and thus got these colors all the time? Yeah, I guess that could cause nostalgia.
How much fertilizer does the Iowan farmer need to add to their field to achieve that? How many years can they maintain that yield without eroding the soil?
Ammonia can be generated through electrolysis as feed-stock for Haber-Bosch to get nitrogen, so literally forever. The reason we use petroleum is because it's currently cheaper than solar PV electrolysis.
Sure, but it would take some time to transition to ramp up production to the scale required by world-scale agriculture. We're using petroleum for this because it was cheap & easy. Not saying we can't transition, but it will take time.
Right, but it's possible with existing tech and there's no scenario where oil disappears all at once. Its a highly geographically distributed resource.
Who cares? Fertilizer is nitrogen that literally comes out of the air. Erosion is vastly overstated by permaculture enthusiasts and can be mitigated vy changes to tillage and irrigation. Erosion in the Midwest clocks in at about 0.04 mm per year, but there's plenty of new soil deposition around the Mississippi. It's a manageable issue.
Extremely wrong how? There's a great an well sourced section in Vaclav Smil's How to Feed the World about this very topic. I also cited a specific erosion figure. But I guess that doesn't matter.
looking forward to reading it! definitely skeptical about your erosion rates, will have to go do my own research later (quick look, USDA estimates for the Corn Belt (~5 tons/acre/year on average)). if your info is coming from one book then i'm doubly skeptical, though i would bet that a soil scientist would probably agree with me and i'm def wondering if you might've misread the book?
i'm not a farmer, but i do manage woodlands, have a huge garden, volunteered on farms over the years, worked in a sustainable ag non-profit, and have even tried distributing sweet potatoes, etc, so i have an avid interest in agriculture and our food system.
aside from the fact that the soil is one of the three most important components for growing food, therefore it's extremely important to take care of it if we want our species to live into future centuries... there is a lot of evidence that shows that industrial ag creates erosion problems (one easy example: all of the national forests in my area was degraded farm land that they converted to woodlands in the 30s, because they learned this fact that hard way then). believing that hunger is a solved problem because of 20th century style agriculture is a fallacy. the dust bowl is one historical example that shows how this system can fail spectacularly, and it's all based in how we manage the topsoil, a natural resource just like oil or water.
we lost the moment we tried to overcome natural systems with chemicals (we've had a good run but i believe it's gonna be an anomaly in history). you can use science + natural systems in your favor to grow food. taking care of the topsoil is objective number one. food is a byproduct of good soil. the soil is a living system and chemicals kill that ecosystem to our detriment.
technology is definitely not the answer here. you are welcome to go try to grow food on mars without soil. good luck!
I initially copied the wrong number, the correct number is 1mm per year, coming from a Unas Amherst study not Smil’s book. It’s high vs pre industrial rates, but not catastrophic and as Smil points out there are plenty of places where land being farmed industrially is gaining soil.
glad we're working from the same figure now. 1mm per year is not insignificant, and soil is not a renewable resource... probably a fine amount of soil loss for a farmer's lifetime, but a land manager needs to think over centuries and not in profit cycles.
> and as Smil points out there are plenty of places where land being farmed industrially is gaining soil.
i would bet at least $100 this happens where they do cover crops and actually manage the soil as a resource to be preserved
Thats 1mm in the upper Midwest around the Great Lakes, wind is doubtless a factor. You can’t generalize to all industrial ag from a dozen sites in 3 geographically similar states.
Right, but tillage is not a set in stone practice. The Nebraska Corn Board is now advocating no-til corn planting[1]. Apparently it's already dominant in Western Canada and more than half of Montana cropland is managed without tilling.
Herbicide is a whole different discussion and probably too deep a rabbit hole so far down thread.
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