Never attribute to stupidity what can be attributed to self-interest. It sure looks stupid when you look at America or the Roman Empire as a whole. But when you look at the specific individuals doing these "stupid" things, and the individuals enabling them, it is perfectly aligned with their own best interests.
It’s going to be very hard to turn around over 60 years of behavior, particularly the part of interfering and spending money like a drunken sailor on special interests oil and military, the complex is coming to an end and the piggy bank is running out of money. Without useful internal infrastructure building within the country and I don’t mean data-centers, a restructure, a rethink, the decline will just accelerate.
> Never attribute to stupidity what can be attributed to self-interest.
Interesting. Sounds like a counter-point to Hanlon's razor: "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity".
I use Hanlon's quite a bit to explain nonsense I see day to day, but this is a better one in some ways. It shift the conclusion of "but if only they were shown the right way" to "they know what they are doing and are looking out for number 1".
My comment was indeed inspired by Hanlon's razor. And I generally do agree with Hanlon's razor. I just think there's a distinction between malice and selfishness.
- Someone harming you because they expressly desire to harm you? Unlikely
- Someone harming you because they are stupid and don't realize what they are doing? Maybe.
- Someone harming you as a side-effect of pursuing their own selfish interests? Most likely.
The current administration has taken the edge off Hanlon's razor. Now I prefer saying "Any sufficiently advanced stupidity is indistinguishable from malice."
Interesting. I had not considered how scale affects these mental model.
Now I wonder if depending on the scale, one model is better suited. Or maybe they both can be modified based on the scale.
Maybe self-interest is easier to reason about than the interests of a group. Conflicting self-interests can lead to compromises that result in what looks stupid in the end.
> Never attribute to stupidity what can be attributed to self-interest.
Sure, but in cases like the new Navy battleships... it's just plain dumb, no two ways about it. Aside from the new ship class name, I see no way that it could be attributed to self-interest.
Wait, it is all about the name and that it's big, isn't it. That is self-interest I suppose, but it's just vanity, which is the stupid form of self-interest.
If an empire is subject to the whim of individuals acting in their own self interest, which causes damage and destruction to the empire, I think this is the definition of dying? It has no recourse against the looters so it gets looted to death.
Ultimately the strings are being pulled by someone who stands to gain, but it's not like Trump, Hegseth, Rubio, &co are playing 5D chess here. There are a lot of stupid blundering narcissists running things right now. The actual string-pullers know that, and as long as the stupid blundering narcissism doesn't get in the way of the string-pulling then it doesn't matter to the string-pullers, because stupid blundering narcissists are ultimately the right people for the job (easily manipulated themselves, and effective manipulators of the public). But that doesn't make them or their decisions or their statements less stupid.
Not to mention this all rides on the stupidity and emotional fragility of literally tens or hundreds of millions of voters; anything less and the project would never be possible. That's one reason debilitating the education system at all levels has become a top priority of the current administration (the other being suppression of the free thinking and often liberal or left-wing politics that historically exist at universities).
It’s the lack of coherent leadership at the top, the lawyers, junk bond, equity bankers, oil-men, and the military have had their chance, it’s time for the engineers, science, medical, builders, local bankers and internal infrastructure people to run things. And when I say run things I mean, stop accepting their word as the truth.
You're not going to build a long-term stable system that doesn't limit wealth accumulation, because it doesn't take long until all the power is back with everyone you mentioned.
Does our evolutionary fitness function count as self-interest? Climate change is on a runaway trajectory. We're in line for Darwin's top honour, but no one will be around to receive the award.
> I don't think you can just look at the statistics though. What I mean is that, the main issue is that the category of mistakes they make are going to be inherently different from the category of mistakes that humans make
Would you rather have a X% chance of a loved one dying from a human-category mistake? Or a 0.5X% chance of a loved one dying from a ML-category mistake? I would take the latter in a heartbeat. Why waste time optimizing for "categories" when you can optimize for your loved ones not dying
That is not the way human beings typically evaluate risks. 'Acceptable risks' are more about psychology and not a statistical calculation. A self driving car that is twice as safe as the human average would be considered an unacceptable risk.
Add something that is new/unknown + lack of control, and you will have to clear a very high threshold to be considered 'acceptably safe'. My guess is a minimum of a 0.1x.
I don't think that human beings factor the rate of injury or death in at all, because human beings are notoriously bad with expected values from extreme conditions.
Once people get used to taking robotaxis, they won't care. The bar is "safe enough for very few people to have a bad experience." If you take 10 robotaxi rides in a row and they all go flawlessly your subjective interpretation of the risk will be that there isn't any.
I feel confident saying this because if you die in the US to anything other than old age, it was almost certainly a car crash. Despite this, most people don't think twice before getting in a car.
"Trust" isn't just about "% of a chance I die". It's like "can this system actually function well in the environment I'm in". For instance, I live in the midwest. Our roads are AWFUL compared to most coastal areas, the weather can get really extreme (-20 in the winters), there are things like invisible black ice which is a huge hazard, people drive giant brodozers, etc. If I'm in a taxi or an uber or something, I trust that the driver can adapt to these conditions. I do not trust that a Waymo can. I'm not saying that's a "never" thing, but it is a big deal.
> US citizen charged after GrapheneOS phone wipes during airport search
> It's concerning – and sends the message that [GrapheneOS] is criminal by default
What's with this sensationalism? The GrapheneOS phone didn't just wipe itself - the defendant actively took steps to wipe it. The defendant isn't being prosecuted "by default" for having a GrapheneOS phone. He is being prosecuted for what he actively chose to do with that phone.
If your argument is that the search and seizure was unconstitutional, and you're within your rights to wipe your data, then argue that. I'm very sympathetic to such arguments. But stop with this "they prosecuted me for having a GrapheneOS phone" misdirect
The most compelling argument against Open Source AI: it is analogous to "open sourcing" nuclear weapon technology. Or an how-to guide for making meth/bombs/bioweapons. There is a high risk that we will one day achieve ASI or something close to it. When that day nears, if even one open-source AI user handles their AI in an irresponsible way, we are all FUBARed. In the same way that one irresponsible person with a nuclear bomb can FUBAR the entire world, hence why "open sourcing nuclear weapon tech" is not even a subject of debate.
You don't have to believe that ASI is 100% likely. People like Hinton believe there's a 50% chance of existential risk from AI, but you don't have to go that far either. If there's even a tiny chance of ASI posing a threat to humanity, that's reason enough to lock it down
The difference is that people building atomic weapons knew what they were building. OpenAI/Anthropic have no idea how emergent intelligence works. They're just running in the dark towards the cliff. Leaving it in their hands is the same risk as leaving it to any random guy, because random guy and the labs have the same understanding of what they're building. I'm tired of us treating labs like they're somehow uniquely good at AI. They are not. They simply have enough capital to train. If training was affordable they would have no edge whatsoever.
I'm not claiming that OpenAI is worthy of trust. The safest course of action is to either stop all AI research immediately, or have it be highly regulated by an international body. The most dangerous course of action is to give every single individual the ability to create their own variant of an ASI
I hope this number drops below 50%. Well below 50%. Maybe then we can finally vote down the NIMBY regulations and NIMBY politicians. And start rapidly expanding our housing supply. Given our current political system, it seems high homeownership rates are the root cause of the housing affordability crisis
The core thesis seems to be that the "real value" is not in producing/proving theorems, but in understanding them. AI might be good at producing and proving theorems, but it fails utterly at getting humans to understand them. Even worse, humans have no interest in working on theorems that have already been proven, so we end up with theorems that will never be understood by humans.
I can understand why this is a major concern for mathematicians. They got into their field because they love the beauty of mathematics, and the intellectual satisfaction of understanding non-obvious insights. But to put it crudely, this sounds like a you problem. As someone who isn't a mathematician, the main value I get out of math is its practical applications in science and technology. And their practical applications in human life. I have zero understanding of the math behind cryptography, but I still deeply appreciate the practical value they have provided humanity.
If AI systems start churning out accurate theorem-proofs, and we are able to use those theorems to build things that improve human quality of life, it doesn't bother me one bit that those theorems have not been understood by humans. If this offends your aesthetics, you are certainly entitled to your opinion and your preferences, but that does not make it a societal problem
They got into their field because they love the beauty of mathematics… As someone who isn't a mathematician, the main value I get out of math is its practical applications in science and technology
I have some sad news for you. 99% of the work mathematicians do has no immediate application, nor even an obvious path toward application in the near future. You mentioned cryptography, so for an example consider number theory: no apparent practical applications, going back thousands of years to the time of Euclid and earlier.
It’s been religion, philosophy, and recreation that have provided the motivations to study mathematics all these years, not applications. Applications have almost always followed long after the development of the pure mathematical theory. For number theory, that was the development of cryptography during WW2, millennia after the ancients laid those foundations.
Most unfortunately, it’s the truth value and the understanding which drive applications of mathematics, not the proof work itself. If the AI revolution decapitates the institution of mathematics which produces the understanding, and is unable to replace it, then the applications will cease as well.
> Most unfortunately, it’s the truth value and the understanding which drive applications of mathematics, not the proof work itself. If the AI revolution decapitates the institution of mathematics which produces the understanding, and is unable to replace it, then the applications will cease as well.
In a world with no AI, it is vital for humans to understand math, in order to derive practical applications. But in a world where AI is able to both produce math theorems, and figure out practical applications for them, human understanding has minimal practical value to society.
But in a world where AI is able to both produce math theorems, and figure out practical applications for them, human understanding has minimal practical value to society.
We have examples of AI producing theorems but there is no evidence that AI will be able to find all of the practical applications of mathematics, at least not any time soon.
As I understand it, most of the theorem proving work done by AI today consists entirely of “glue code” style work: combining a bunch of different known results to prove a new result. This is great for those who desire completeness in the mathematical project but it’s often outside the areas of interest for mathematicians who are pursuing “big idea” problems whose solutions likely require development of entire new branches of mathematics. One famous example of such was Fermat’s Last Theorem.
Then you have to make sure that the AIs understand the theorems (sort of build a "world" for that - otherwise how'd there be confidence in the use of said theorems?
If cryptography didn't exist but the maths did, how'd you use it?
There are 2 very different kinds of arguments. Arguments where you're trying to convince the other person. And arguments where you're trying to convince bystanders. These require completely different tactics.
If you're trying to convince the other person, be humble. Be gentle. Be subtle. Ask them questions. Let them think they came up with the idea entirely on their own. If any bystanders are watching this discussion, they are more likely to think that the other person is right, or that they are "winning". But this will give you the best possible chance of convincing the person you're talking to.
If you're trying to convince bystanders, project confidence. Present compelling evidence. Pick apart the other person's arguments and show why its flawed. Chances are, this will make the other person dig in even more strongly and resent you. But this will give you the best chance of convincing neutral bystanders.
Use the right tool for each job. If you're using "debate tactics" in a 1:1 discussion, you will never get the desired results, no matter how data-driven and logical your arguments are. I've made this mistake far too many times, and this seems to be what OP is getting at as well
I like this distinction, but it reminds me to cherish the people who don't require such confidence games.
Feynman has a famous anecdote about sitting around the table with senior scientists in contentious argument where he was perplexed because it was obvious to him who was right. They argued all sides, and ultimately agreed, having proofed the idea and its alternatives.
That's who I want on my team: people who can shake things out without needing to be right or needing others to be humble, and without playing games. After viability, that's my primary criterion for a position.
If you're trying to convince an audience, it matters how you treat the person you're arguing with. Don't be a jerk. People notice that, and judge you for it. They judge your position for it - perhaps not intellectually, but emotionally.
The best possible thing to do in that situation is to out-evidence them, out-argument them, and out-nice them. And really, if the facts are on your side, you shouldn't have to be a jerk or manipulative.
This is a curious phenomenon that I've started to notice. People often post extremely aggressive comments... but it is still socially acceptable as long as their aggression is directed towards an abstract figure, or a specific person who "isn't in the room".
Whereas if someone replies to that aggressive comment with an equally aggressive comment, that is far less socially acceptable.
Once I noticed it, it's blindingly obvious. It's like going to a dinner party and complaining about your boss being a moron vs calling another guest at the party a moron. But for the longest time, I viewed internet forums as a place where everyone is "equally abstract" - and where the focus is on the exchange of ideas, not your personal relationship with the people behind the ideas. Hence why it took me an embarrassing amount of time to figure out this most basic of concepts
Imagine if the top 0.001% build and jointly own an ASI that makes human labor completely obsolete in every single way. This seems like the worst case scenario for the rest of us, right? Wrong. In this scenario, these 0.001% would not interact with the rest of us in any way. They will not hire us, they will not buy anything from us, and they will not sell anything to us either. After all, the rest of us are completely obsolete to them, so what benefit could they possibly have in interacting with us? They will just disappear to their own private heaven - perhaps in Mars, Atlantis, or the Metaverse.
At that point, from the perspective of the rest of us, they simply don't exist. And their ASI wouldn't exist either. We would get back to the world as it was pre-ASI. One where all of us need stuff that others among us can offer, and we hire one another and buy stuff from one another. Sure, things aren't as great as they could have been. But the status quo isn't the worst thing in the world either.
The scenario that is a lot more concerning/weird is the more realistic one, where ASI makes 99% of human labor obsolete - but not the remaining 1%. At that point, the ASI owners will hold American-idol style auditions where thousands of hopefuls vie for the opportunity to be in that lucky 1%. Auditions where we beg and plead shamelessly to be chosen by the ASI owners. Auditions where the losers are left to scrounge for the 2nd hand, 3rd hand, and 4th hand scraps, that trickle down from the 1%.
I hope to god that when an ASI is built, and in the unlikely case that it doesn't simply overthrow humanity, that we will have a political structure in place that gives everyone a meaningful share in the fruits of ASI. Or that the owners of this ASI consider every other human to be utterly useless, f off to their Randian paradise, and leave the rest of us completely alone. The middle ground between these two is where dystopia lives
I don't see why having ASI would make the top 0.001% less interested in using the energy, minerals, and land on earth. Just because they have no interest in your labor doesn't mean they have no interest your house or your energy supply. "Humans will be so rich they will fuck off to other parts of the world and leave gorilla habitat alone" hasn't really panned out so well.
> I don't see why having ASI would make the top 0.001% less interested in using the energy, minerals, and land on earth. Just because they have no interest in your labor doesn't mean they have no interest your house or your energy supply
If they have zero need for human labor, that implies that they have a limitless swarm of AI powered machinery that can build and do anything they want. Why bother trying to take your oil, when they can build a massive solar farm in the sahara desert. Why bother trying to take your house when they can live on a completely deserted private island
>They will just disappear to their own private heaven - perhaps in Mars, Atlantis, or the Metaverse.
See, this is where I believe you are both confused and wrong.
Their servers need energy, their bots need materials, these things come from real ownership of land. There are also things said rich people like, such as beautiful locations. And all of these beautiful locations are filled with ugly stinky people that are more poor than them. At least some of these rich people will want to 'deal' with this problem.
> the French said - something like - they should punch the police more and light things on fire.
I'm trying to wrap my head around this as well. Do these people want "punching the police and lighting things on fire" to be a freely permitted form of free speech?
If so, should anyone be legally allowed to destroy any amount of stuff, for any reason they feel unhappy about? Or is this a case of "blowing stuff up should only be permitted for causes I like, not for causes I dislike"?
If not, do they see the irony in endorsing behaviors that they simultaneously believe should not be legalized?
No, it should be illegal, otherwise everything would get destroyed whenever someone is slightly destroyed. Illegality serves as a kind of filter so that when enough people risk jail or death for a cause, that's because they really had enough.
I haven't given that a lot of thought, and it feels weird to say, but maybe the opinion that an act should be done and should be illegal can be true at the same time.
When a citizen commits a crime, they messed up. When ten commit a crime, they messed up. When half the village destroys the chief's home, the chief messed up.
I think you've misunderstood. Such things are also illegal in France. But there are times you need to be prepared to break the law to bring about political change, eg if a government repeatedly demonstrates indifference to public concern.
Suppose you are living under very corrupt or autocratic governance, and you protest in the conventional way (marching, waving signs and banners and so on) bu the government simply ignores it, or slanders the protestors for having a different opinion. What do you do then?
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