IMO, that remains to be seen. China is still adding new coal capacity roughly equal to America's entire coal capacity, or about ~160+GW, just in 2025(74GW)/2026(90+GW expected) while retiring almost none.
Capacity is less relevant than usage. It's not like you drive a combustion car by putting your foot to the floor on the accelerator and only modulate your speed with the clutch and breaks.
Yaya. Sorry. I didn't state my assumptions, am mixing issues.
To me, Kia/Hyundai is an example of a foreign manufacturer successively building EVs in North America for North America. Satisfying American standards, tastes, regulations, etc.
I expect the larger Chinese competitors to do the same.
Decades ago, European and then Japanese competitors did as well.
>> as if Samsung didn't receive government subsidies when it was developing
That's because Samsung didn't get gov't subsidies when they developed DRAM in the early 80's. Semiconductors weren't really among the targeted industries by the South Korean gov't and were largely ignored as the govt prioritized HCI (Heavy Chemical Industry), shipbuilding, steel, and automobiles. The gov't didn't understand the potential of semiconductors and viewed the growing industry as risky investment.
Unlike China or Taiwan, the South Korea's semiconductor industry was very much organic, started by a private company, Korea Semiconductor, in the mid 70's which was later acquired by Samsung and became Samsung Semiconductors Inc. And they bled millions of their own money until their own DRAM came out in the early 80's.
The gov't still believed the industry was too risky and costly even after Samsung's development of 64K and 256K DRAM in 1983 and 1984. Samsung burnt through their own cash stockpile cross-financed by other divisions, or borrowed from foreign banks and financial institutions. There was really no major support until 1986 when ETRI, a gov't sponsored research institution, stepped in to promote cooperation among domestic semiconductor players -- ie, so Samsung could teach and help bring up other chaebols LG and Hyundai up to speed.
So PLEASE no more insane whataboutism to defend China's neo-mercantile practices or illegal state subsidies.
Coke and Pepsi dominate the worldwide drink market, but due to the immense size of the market, there are always up-and-coming competitors.
Go to your local superstore, supermarket, or your local convenience store.
You'll find Coke and Pepsi, lots of it, but you'll also find no-name drinks and sodas from drink companies that are not as well established yet or well known.
That those exist is a good thing, at least for consumers, at least for those that consume, because the root of all consumer prosperity brought on by capitalism (global trade = capitalism, regardless of the names of countries involved) comes from the relentless competition brought on by two or more companies, ideally as many as possible...
We would not have the super high performing desktop computers we have today if it were not for the historic early competition between AMD and Intel (later entered by other CPU manufacturers), and we would not have choice if it were not for competition.
Getting back to DRAM manufacturers, The first three do dominate 95+% of the market as of 2026.
But there might be some interesting up-and-coming smaller companies to watch...
Let's remember that OpenAI came from basically nowhere -- to give Google a run for its money -- as did Google with Microsoft's behemoth 20+ years ago...
What new DRAM manufacturer might be the next up-and-coming DRAM manufacturer in the space?
Well, we don't as-of-yet know... but the space is an interesting one to watch, to be sure!
But you are correct!
The first three do currently dominate 95+% of the market as of 2026...
Isn't there higher barriers to entry than OpenAI and soda? They were able to compete with "commodity" hardware. A DRAM manufacturer would need expensive machines from ASML, right?
I'm not forced to drink Coke or Pepsi if I go to a bar. Only if I specifically want a cola I very likely get whatever cola they got (likely either Coke or Pepsi). If you want to use a computer, it will have DRAM, and you'll end up with one of the DRAM hardware manufacturers.
> Let's remember that OpenAI came from basically nowhere -- to give Google a run for its money -- as did Google with Microsoft's behemoth 20+ years ago...
Yeah, but the capital behind it certainly did not:
> OpenAI was initially founded as a nonprofit organization by Altman, Greg Brockman, Elon Musk, Jessica Livingston, Peter Thiel, Microsoft, Amazon Web Services, Infosys, and YC Research. When OpenAI launched in 2015, it had raised pledges for $1 billion. [1]
Altman was well connected, with rich friends. People like Thiel and Musk. Under the guise of a non-profit they eventually pulled a rug to make OpenAI for-profit.
The barrier of entry for hardware design is also just plain different than software. There was a good talk on that recently on 39c3.
We know, minimally, from Perplexity's list above, that there exist multiple alternative DRAM manufacturers other than Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix, that have completed at least some of the barriers of entry to the high-end DRAM market, and possibly many...
We also know that the world is full of capital -- as you suggest.
That capital is continually looking for investment opportunities, and DRAM is a huge, huge market...
When capital invests in markets, any barriers to entry are moved, if not outright displaced (i.e., OpenAI, $1 billion, etc.).
Point is, we don't know what the future will hold...
I think it's a good bet that cheaper DRAM, DDR5 and otherwise, will be coming down the pike soon, once production catches up, once supply outpaces demand...
Seems more likely OpenAI or one of the hyperscalers would continue vertical expansion into chips but likely only supply themselves--possibly making proprietary variants only they could use anyway
Seems to be the case with CPUs although I know that's a bit different since they're contracting with existing fabs
Samsung closed the last Chinese smartphone factory in 2019 and moved South to Vietnam. In 2020, Samsung's Vietnam production accounted for about 25+% of the country's GDP and export.
IMO, and it's not even really clear how Samsung's DRAM business really benefited from the state backing. The South Korea gov't first major initiative "Semiconductor Industry Promotion Plan" started only after Samsung'd developed their first 64K DRAM in 1983. It really helped other local industry competitors such as LG and Hyundai catch up, but Samsung was already on a roll -- by the early 90's, the company became the first to develop 256Mb DRAM. Not clear whether they really needed hand-holding from the gov't.
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