Yeah but someone has to give the money to the insider traders.
Betting and insider gambling wouldn’t work if people were educated and just didn’t gamble and so never used these platforms in the first place.
It’s an old question of whether government is responsible to protect people from themselves or should we give everyone freedom to go bankrupt in this specific way if they so desire.
I don’t know if there is a healthy way to gamble really. With drugs and substances at least there is some continuous spectrum but you either gamble your money or not.
Many, I suspect the overwhelming majority, of the markets are impossible to engage in insider trading in. So it's genuinely just an interesting way to monetize expertise. Chess is a great example. A lot of the money in that market is people turning on the latest chess engines and betting in accordance to position evals, but skilled players can see much more - like how a position that the computer gives as a dead drawn is, in reality, extremely difficult for one side to hold. So the market might give near 50% when it's perhaps more like 65/35. That's quite a large edge. There's also quite a lot of opportunities for arbitrage betting, which is by definition risk free.
The majority of people can’t even control their daily screen time, yet we are supposed to believe they can masterfully restrain their urges when money and dopamine are on the line? Nothing I’ve seen indicates human impulse control is that bulletproof. Furthermore, the 'I have it under control' narrative isn't proof of a healthy habit; it’s practically the universal slogan of active addiction.
Would you not say that somebody could equally cynically describe options trading in this way?
Prediction markets are very valuable because they provide information on issues that's generally much more accurate than alternative sources, such as polls. For instance Polymarket predicted 94% of the results for the 2024 election a month out, including the presidential. It can also provide more information than the news. For instance the chances of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31st just skyrocketed up to 78%. That tells me far more than the various news sites minute by minute coverage.
Gambling = investing. Buying stocks is also gambling. Share buybacks, dividends, fancy words for forking money from workers to some joe schmoe that bought a lottery ticket, i.e., a stock.
Trust is what we've always had for dealing with this. It is an incredible force multiplier for intellectual capacity.
We've just forgotten it. This doesn't require a technical solution, it just requires operating in a trustworthy manner and only extending your web of trust in your platforms to trustworthy entities.
Price matching across vendors does not matter if you trust one vendor. You can just go with "order from Costco" and avoid a complicated technical problem.
So much of what we are doing now is rediscovering trust, integrity, and ethics. Think about Meta and the challenges they would have to being a foundational model provider in light of that analysis, for example.
It isn't "so deadly", it's just unhealthy, and it's made worse by culture and business encouraging excessive consumption and serving sizes.
Ultraprocessed foods aren't great, but it's yet another manufactured crisis to serve as a distraction from the Epstein files scandal and coverup, like the attack Iran will be next Thursday. What a horrible time.
I don’t like the “everything else is a distraction” take. Multiple things can be very bad at once, and our government is capable of multiple conspiracies at once. Not that processed food is a government conspiracy.
I think I agree with you in general, just not in this specific case. There is nothing that changed this year with respect to food.
And this administration rolled back existing standards to improve school lunch nutrition and their nutrition policy changes have not been science based, so they demonstrably don't care about the issue.
An important foot note to that is that the current US federal government has politicized science to the point that it cannot be trusted as a source of health or medical information. Professional societies of doctors and scientists are far more reliable.
Past governments may have also completely botched the food guidelines, too, but it's never been as clearly botched as it is at the moment.
They attempted a coup on FDR https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_Plot
It has been mostly whitewashed in favor of "the greatest generation" and the WW2 hero narrative.
Restricting foreign scientists here is yet another way we are paying for this whitewashing and romanticizing of US exceptionalism today.
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