> Why would you want to live in an area that has that creepy of a tech product facing the pool? I wouldn’t want the hoa or an enterprising creep of a cop spying on my kids or myself either.
You've all spent two decades strapping microphone/camera/gps combos to the side of your head and filling your homes/cars/tvs/fridges with big tech cameras and microphones but this is the line apparently.
I'm not well versed in American privacy expectations but it seems kind of arbitrary from an outsiders perspective.
The problem some have pointed out is that these companies are such a huge portion of the market right now.
The sound advice for the past decades has been, just invest in a low-cost ETF tracking the S&P instead of picking stocks to minimize risk and invest in the market broadly.
So a huge number of people have done that, believing they're diversified, while tech makes up 40% of the index.
Yes you could sell your S&P and find things to invest in least likely to be impacted by a potential bubble, but your average 9-5'er with automated contributions to their 401k is probably not sophisticated enough to do that.
And that's assuming only these companies would be affected if there was a massive draw-down in tech/AI related stocks. We haven't really seen a situation like this before, so it's not easy to predict what effects there might be in the broader economy.
It’s probably not even a good idea to try and defend against the bubble by switching up your stock allocation. After all the whole reason passive investing works is that active investment rarely beats the market and if you’ve just been in SPY the whole time it’s unlike you have any edge to gain by switching to an active strategy every time fear creeps up
It’s one thing to predict a crash, it’s another to actually make money off of it. If you’ve watched The Big Short even those who predicted the housing crisis correctly nearly lost their shirt before and after it happened because timing the crash is the hard part. There is a whole body of research showing that passive strategies outperform active after crashes
no one that needs to rely on their investments for their actual retirement still has them in equities. theres a reason target date funds automatically adjust asset allocation as it nears its target date. you should be in majority bonds and cds well before your actual retirement date.
That is an overly conservative approach that sacrifices a lot of growth for not much more safety. It also exposes you to inflation risk, which is a significant concern these days.
Most people in actual retirement I know do something like keep ~2 years of cash in short-term treasuries and everything else in equities. That gives you a lot of buffer to time-shift equity drawdown, which is the main risk with equities, while retaining almost all of the benefit of equities. Simple and relatively robust.
i dont think you want to ever be in a position where you arent making money and your net worth could drop 50% in a year. but hey, if you want the risk go for it i guess.
It literally doesn't matter if drops 50% in a year. That is a paper loss and you have years worth of cash you can spend while waiting for it to recover. If you panic-sell at the bottom of that market then that's on you. It isn't necessary in order to pay the bills.
What you propose takes on a huge amount of inflation risk. How are you hedging that risk? A guaranteed yield doesn't mean you aren't getting poorer. Obsessing over one type of risk and ignoring another isn't rational.
Reducing variance of net worth has a very high cost. Over-indexing on that singular property, particularly when most people can afford some variability, is a recipe for relative impoverishment.
The employer selects a financial company to manage the 401k. When you switch jobs, you can roll the 401k from the previous employer into the new one, or into an IRA (Individual Retirement Account).
Usually the financial services company will offer several options: more aggressive/high risk, or less aggressive/lower risk. Most people will just go with whatever is the default option.
So much of the American S&P 500 is dominated by handful of companies that the risk is not that easy to avoid. If or when the AI bubble pops, it's going to take down a lot of the economy with it. You can direct your retirement savings into the lowest yield/lowest risk assets offered by the firm, but you'll forego whatever growth happens in the mean time.
Will the bubble pop next week? Next month? Next year? Who knows. Timing the market is incredibly difficult.
There's a famous quote, attributed (perhaps apocryphally) to John Maynard Keynes: "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."
The whole idea of a pension fund is that you don't need to time the system it is the system.
Like my country pension scheme. It went through ups and downs for a hundred years but has always come on top. All you need is a long horizon and a trillion dollars and you basically can't lose.
That assumes the point of invading Cuba is to do liberal market reforms. If the goal is either to expropriate resources or just throw chum to the Florida voters in an election year then it's still on the table.
In the case of Cuba I imagine it's simply just political control, vassalage, control of the hemisphere. In the case of Venezuela it is Energy Dominance. The USA wants to control Global Energy supplies: oil and [natural] gas. It's all about China. By controlling the world's energy supplies the USA hopes to curtail the rise of China as a peer competitor and prevent other nations from achieving that status as well. Oil is price in $US. Iran was selling their oil in Yuan. That's a big no no from the point of view of maintaining US Hegemony.
This indicates US already lost and is being a crybaby trying to maintain the current situation.
It will never work to be a bully without actually producing value long term.
Largest advancements I can see in US lately are LLMs and legalized gambling. They are also defunding science. AND they are making immigration harder which basically seals the deal since they are not capable of producing enough educated people to keep doing what they were doing before.
Also OFC Donald Trump who is a ignorant businessman that specializes in a mafioso industry and is a reality tv personality, is elected president twice.
Talking about pedestrian deaths implies an image of an upstanding citizen crossing a street and being hit by a car. But the vast majority of deadly accidents are people in a bad mental state wandering into highways.
A quick ChatGPT suggests about half of all these incidents clearly involve alchohol.
> Why would you want to live in an area that has that creepy of a tech product facing the pool? I wouldn’t want the hoa or an enterprising creep of a cop spying on my kids or myself either.
You've all spent two decades strapping microphone/camera/gps combos to the side of your head and filling your homes/cars/tvs/fridges with big tech cameras and microphones but this is the line apparently.
I'm not well versed in American privacy expectations but it seems kind of arbitrary from an outsiders perspective.
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