What I like is it's still hard, but you can do things like "prove this using game theory" or "find the optimal value for this and a proof" without having to know game theory or deep math really
How do you ensure that the output isn't BS if you don't know those areas? What value does it add to have a mathematical proof of questionable validity?
if you have an intuition something is true, you can verify the proof. even if you couldn't construct the proof. allowing skepticism to terminate thought is a dead end.
There used to be a lot of research into using deep NNs to train decision trees, which are themselves much less of a black box and can actually be reasoned about. I wonder where that all went?
Very ironic for the billionaire to be openly replacing himself with AI, I suppose he believes his job is easy enough that an LLM can do it, so we definitely don't need him
Yes, exactly. Anyone training a model to replace themselves, is replacing themselves -- with something that can run 24/7 and can easily scale. And the better the model, the easier to replace.
Hence why I'm so surprised that MZ, of all people, is arguing in this direction.
I would think that the potential for malicious abuse alone should have scared him off of this.
It's all just really genius marketing. In 6 months Mythos will be nothing special, but right now everyone is being manipulated into fearing its release, as a marketing ploy.
This is the same reason AI founders perennially worry in public that they have created AGI...
I can't believe the effectiveness of this type of marketing. It's one-shotting normie journalist and getting a lot of press for what is ultimately going to turn out to be an incrementally improved model.
I'm sure all they've done here is spend unlimited tokens to find bugs in mostly open source projects (and fuzz some closed source ones).
The fact that they are not going to release this DANGEROUS model is also a huge tell that it's nothing but an incremental improvement over the status quo.
I find it very unlikely that Mythos will "be nothing special". Current Opus is already "special" enough to find dozens of real bugs in Firefox and the Linux kernel, and Mythos is, it seems, a full OOM above it.
I'm so tired of the astroturfing from Anthropic literally everywhere. Every single forum, every single thread anywhere on the internet is filled with their bots muddying up the conversation, it's so tiring.
Where is the astroturfing? From what I can tell it’s maybe the fastest growing product/company ever. Anthropic’s products have completely changed how software development gets done across the entire industry, especially in the past four months. The level of hype seems entirely justified to me (and I say this as an OpenAI Codex user).
Yeah perfect example, the main thing I _would_ use multiple agents on is optimizing/benchmarking code, but for that you specifically can't use worktree, you need one agent per machine or they'll taint each other's benchmarks
Especially when the "prediction" part isn't even part of the product, it is an accidental byproduct. No one pays for access to the predictions.
And they aren't predictions, they are more like "outcome-shaping" markets, since the more liquidity that gets dumped on a particular outcome, the more motivation there is to tamper with the real-world outcome, and at a certain point it will just always happen if it is billions of dollars.
The higher the liquidity involved, the less likely the real world outcome ends up being the same as it would have been if the prediction market had never existed. Very messy.
> the more liquidity that gets dumped on a particular outcome, the more motivation there is to tamper with the real-world outcome
This only works if there are enough people betting on the other side. It's not some kind of magical money multiplication machine. As more stuff like the one-day Iran bet or the 64:56 minute press conference happen, people will avoid taking bets on highly specific outcomes.
On more reasonable bets like "war with Iran in the next 6 months", if there is some kind of shadowy cabal putting billions of dollars on the yes side, they just aren't going to have much upside if there isn't the same amount on the no side.
> It's not some kind of magical money multiplication machine
Right, it's not even consistent, the manipulation can go either way, at random, but what is sure is the higher the liquidity, the higher the motivation becomes to tamper
Those predictions are just market data, market data is often very expensive (my data usage at work is probably about $100k a year and i'm not even a trader), I imagine polymarket will be too when they are more established.
It's inherently free data. You have to be able to trade against it, and to trade against it you need to see it _before_ you give them money, so they can basically never charge for it. When they sell it to people, it's just laziness, they could scrape it themselves.
edit: apparently they do, that's even more wild lol
Traders sometimes go to prison for insider trading. The wisdom of the crowd human when the crowd is following someone with insider information is deemed legal.
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