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but the non-TV part of the internet is, on its own, probably more valuable than TV ever was


Web is practically dead . Social media a net loss. Messaging has some value . VC has some value . But we should compare apples to apples

IP video consumption experience is lower quality and requires 100x the resources .


Imagine having the Internet, and all you want it for is TV.


That’s what the audience wants

time spent is converging on social video and streaming video

Full circle


My guess is that whoever develops superintelligence first will have a big number in their bank account while their body is disassembled to make solar panels and data centers


the article reads like a press release talking about how innovative and exciting their product is for dozens of paragraphs, but never actually giving details about what the product is


do you think vinge and kurzweil in the 90s and 2000s were imagining the singularity occuring exactly at the advent of LLMs? are you supposing that LLMs are the only viable path towards advanced AI, and that we have now hit a permanent ceiling for AI?

AI doesn't scare you because you apparently have no sense of perspective or imagination


> AI doesn't scare you because you apparently have no sense of perspective or imagination

We can imagine both of the following: 1. space aliens from Betelgeuse coming down and enslaving humanity to work in the dilithium mines to produce the fuel for their hyperdrives, and 2. the end of civilization via global nuclear war. Both of these would be pretty bad, but only one is worth worrying about. I don't worry about Roko's Basilisk, I worry about AI becoming the ultimate tool of Big Brother, because the latter is realistic and the former is pure fantasy.

Don't be afraid of the AI. Be afraid of the powerful men who will use the AI to entrench their power and obliterate free society for the rest of human history.


> Don't be afraid of the AI. Be afraid of the powerful men who will use the AI to entrench their power and obliterate free society for the rest of human history.

Right. We already know that certain agencies are out of control right now. The use of AI will certainly accelerate that. Surveillance is getting cheaper, privacy is getting more expensive, and laws are weapons.


If we're talking about the next few decades, I share your opinion. But beyond that I don't. We will eventually have to control and align systems more generally capable/smarter than us (assumption). I don't have your confidence that this will be as easy or risk-free as you're making it out to be.


> do you think vinge and kurzweil in the 90s and 2000s were imagining the singularity occuring exactly at the advent of LLMs?

Kurzweil explicitly tied it to AI, though the particular decisive not-yet-then-existing-AI-tech that would be the enabler was not specified, unsurprisingly.


I believe he thought reverse engineering the brain in conjunction with computers powerful enough to model brains was the path to AGI and the singularity by 2045.


i feel this way about twitter since logged out users can't browse tweets anymore. now i can give myself just a tiny bit of friction to break the habit. i still waste time on my phone, but at least it's not quite so effortless now


i wonder how many of the commenters who bemoan how GPT-4 can't do this or that task, could have predicted 2 or 5 years ago what GPT-4 can do easily today


Yes I also only find people to be credible if they have a solid track record of magically predicting events 2 to 5 years in the future.


That's the only way I'd find people credible when they're claiming they can predict 2 to 5 years in the future from now.

If they couldn't see ChatGPT coming, I'm not convinced of the whole "it'll never be able to..." spiel.


you should give it a try to be honest. metaculus.com


Yeah that is a much more succinct way to put it!


i like how the article never explains or even mentions what "we're doing wrong"


Yeah, as wasteful with someone's time as the meetings it's talking about.


>Tinder and Bumble are in decline

do we actually have any evidence this is true? people have complained about dating since we were neanderthals; articles like this have written themselves for the past decade


the supermajority of humanity doesn't know what chatGPT is useful for, so google's total amount of searches are almost certainly the same. you could only detect the difference for, say, searches that would return stackoverflow results


...which I suspect has a large overlap with ad blocker users and, even those that don't, probably are not as sensitive to online ads as average Joe.


evolution also programmed us to yawn, yet doctors can't figure out what purpose or benefit it has


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