I have cracked other joints as well. I have stopped doing the neck and the spine tho - that seems not worth the risk.
I had a particularly annoying joint that I have completely stopped cracking - likely the cause was a functional issue that is resolved due to weight loss.
People are looking for the AI bear case - so this headline gotta work better. Its not a bad idea haha. More people suspect there is some circular shenanigans but want confirmation -- so maybe this is the best way to lure them in. Come as the bear, stay for the bull.
With just these 2 comments, now I'm really gonna read that article.
The AI tooling I used 12-24 months ago if frozen in time, monetized correctly is probably 100x the capability of what software could do before (And software was already eating the world long before AI). The bull case is that we just invented the 21st century equivalent of the printing press or electricity. And that website is the 19th century equivalent of someone criticizing electricity as a concept because it would be expensive to build power lines.
If anything it's a miracle that the US economy is so efficient that we can just skip all the small talk and bullshit and build out the infrastructure to support AI immediately.
Just to help me out a little; you're saying "printing press and electricity"
But there were printing presses before movable type, and movable type specifically allowed creation of inexpensive books and newspapers. The printing press itself wasn't all that useful alone.
Electricity (in the form of shocking fish) was used by people thousands of years ago and Volta was fiddling with electricity to make frog legs dance in the 1800s; electricity as an industrial property required a bunch of knowledge and material science to make ... lights and motors. Electricity by itself isn't all that wonderful; a flash in the pan so to speak.
So -- what "electric light" or "movable type" is the product of LLMs? I'm sure there are, but ELI5...
I can think of "Summarize this thing for me" and "Elaborate on this half baked idea" -- and honestly "summarize this for me" is actually quite useful. But I'm not sure it is "electric lights / electric appliances" or "indoor plumbing" degree of revolutionary.
That’s all great but that isn’t a bull case for getting actual money out of it at the levels needed to justify the spending. Our entire stock market (everyone’s retirement) is based on this right now. Not all amazing inventions enrich everyone involved. Sometimes it’s just pgp or the dishwasher. It’s interesting you mention electricity, because that’s what AI feels like to me. It will be important and vital, but you don’t care where it comes from, you just care if it works and nobody really makes a killing from a commodity like electricity. The valuation of these companies is based on AI being something completely different from what it will be because of hysteria. There is no difference between this and the GME meme stocks, it simply got bigger and has now swallowed the whole economy.
> If anything it's a miracle that the US economy is so efficient that we can just skip all the small talk and bullshit and build out the infrastructure to support AI immediately.
This is a good take. But then it makes you think - China can build a data center cheaper. Their non-chip cost is likely much smaller. So if there is a down-cycle in chip and memory prices and/or the technology-progress slows, whoever can build horizontal capacity has the advantage.
We have been pushing to the frontier very fast. But there will be a lot of efficiencies found. The agentic use-case has some room to run even if models stay static ie inference needs continue to grow. This puts pressure on the edge that US has of pushing frontier at higher costs. This is likely the AI bear scenario.
That said, I'm aligned with you that I'm not clear who is profiting from it other than oligarchs. I'm also quite certain the valuations are fully in bubble territory, pricing in decades of profit I don't see playing out for the LLM vendors. That said, I think it'll be a bit before it deflates.
Way too many regular tech bros making money/invested in it for a reasonable discussion on the topic on HN, imo.
AI is likely correlation not causation. The generation that resonated with the self-help books has aged out. Short form vids on YT, TT, IG taking mind-share is likely the bigger cause.
This is a good point. If there was timeless material, they would continue to sell. Maybe War of Art or Meditations still continue to sell. Deep Work is a joke.
if we get to the stage where the AI hardware is a more of a commodity and usability becomes 10x simpler, then people may buy their own hardware and run local models.
Everybody owns a car, washer, TV, etc today. Maybe one could finance a server-box/trailer costing $20k, trade it in every 7 years for a newer model, etc. Many people are going to own a $20k Optimus.
The car, TV, washer, and whatever humanoid robot finds product market fit physically need to be in my house, or close to it, in order for them to be useful to me. Thanks to the Internet, the data center doesn't need to be, like at all. Economy of scale says that renting a slice of time on the most expensive GPU supercomputer out there is going to be faster and also probably cheaper since I'd only be getting a slice while the server is serving multiple users.
There is efficiency in the cloud model for models. So maybe there is a scope for Apple or an "Apple for AI" in the AI compute game - mainly from the perspective of privacy etc.
And once the servers are in space, everything is fully out there.
> But good to have researchers and professors "in-house".
I'm not in this field, but I think we already have them. Probably the main difference is that we have most or all of them in academia and next to none insode private companies. But we do have them, and they could start working for private companies if the market moves in that direction in the EU as well
Unfortunately in this game first principles requires massive resources, not "some". Building in-house on top of existing open weights is a good way to bootstrap this process, especially since there's nothing inherently magical or particularly expertise-heavy when it comes to weights themselves
I had a particularly annoying joint that I have completely stopped cracking - likely the cause was a functional issue that is resolved due to weight loss.