One difference is that we don't try to replace those products, instead we integrate with them so you can e.g. search Qatalog to find stuff in Google Drive/Slack/Github/wherever.
Also - must remember that AI is a programmer on the sidelines letting data do the logic. It required a fairly different frame of mind than traditional programming
So data as employed by DL plays the same role that it does in Brooks' subsumption architecture -- grounding and shaping the knowledge model -- but now doing it emergently, albeit requiring a lot of parameter tuning from the human-in-the-loop.
An interesting prospect for the evolution of software developers.
If you have strong PM skills, you'll do well in larger companies. I have sent you an email (from your profile) to a contact in the UK who might be able to help. Good luck!
Revenue is largely a function of marketing effectiveness/marketing spend coupled with a minimum product/market fit. If someone has a legit internet software product bringing in $500k a year, they'd have to be pretty silly to sell it for $1.5M - unless they're really desperate for cash or hit a scale/product/market/ops ceiling they cant crack.
Capital is free flowing at the moment and a legit revenue-generating, valuable, scalable business shouldn't have to cash out this early or this low.
This 3x yearly earnings is mentioned quite often. But I can't believe anybody is selling for this. Maybe for 5x if you are in need of money.
And in times of zero interest rates this 3x thing sounds even more unbelievable.
Well software isn't like a lot of businesses. A plumbing supply company will probably be just as successful in 3 years as it is now, but a software company might be worthless. Three years is a long time in software.
Only if growth is 6%-10% per year (or as much as twice that depending on who you ask), and you have reasonable expectation of that growth continuing or accelerating for the foreseeable future. That kind of multiple isn't for a stable business with predictable sales.
Valuing companies based on revenues is a bit of a stretch in my mind. Actual income/earnings/cashflow makes a lot more sense.
If you don't take into account expenses then you get some really wacky valuations: ie a company is in the business of selling houses (or other large cost item) for a small percentage higher than they bought them. If you don't take into account the cost of buying the house and running the business, and just look at the revenue from each house sale you will drastically over value the business. If they sell 50 $100,000 houses that they bought for $99k each and it cost them $500 in fees per house sale they would have $25k in actual earnings but $5 million in revenue. Valuing on a common "5x the yearly revenue" you would be willing to pay $25 million for a business that produces $25k per year (if you are willing to do so and have a lot of money I'll sell you a lot of businesses like that!).
Software is a higher margin business of course, but at the end of the day as an investor I care about how much cash is going to go into my pocket due to an investment rather than how much total cash passes through the companies books.
Even the 2x to 3x of earnings that sole proprietor/small software shops are getting now sounds outrageous to me. You're betting on growth (and paying like it's there) and hoping that clients don't leave for 2 to 3 years. Higher multiples can make sense if there are expenses you can cut to get earnings (or a very clear, easy to see growth opportunity [if that is there then why are they selling of course?]), otherwise you're just tossing away money.
That's fair, but you can only reason that way with an owner who is mentally "done" with his business, or his business is flat/ declining. For entrepreneurs that feel they haven't yet attained anything close to the full profit potential of their business, you just have to make them an offer they can't refuse, which leads to absurd valuations. Sometimes works great, sometimes it doesn't, hopefully it evens out positively in the end. That's the game you play when you invest.
If the site you like still support RSS that’s likely the easiest way to go