Assuming the AI maximalist digital god bros are wrong, there will always be some demand for programmers, the question is how much. It's not hard to see a future where programming goes the way of farming where the demand for small-scale farming still exists but at a tiny fraction of what it once was.
Well you're trying to convince them to reject their actual experience. Better tooling and better models have indeed solved a lot of the limitations models faced a couple years ago.
I also believe coding isn't going to disappear, but AI skeptics have been mostly doing a combination of moving the goalposts and straight up denial over the last few years.
I've been trying out AI over the past month (mostly because of management trying to force it down my throat), and have not found it to be terribly conducive to actually helping me on most tasks. It still evidences a lot of the failure modes I was talking about 3 years ago. And yet the entire time, it's the AI boosters who keep trying to say that any skepticism is invalid because it's totally different than how it was three months ago.
I haven't seen a lot of goalpost moving on either side; the closest I've seen is from the most hyperbolic of AI supporters, who are keeping the timeline to supposed AGI or AI superintelligence or whatnot a fairly consistent X months from now (which isn't really goalpost-moving).
pi.dev is worth checking out. The basic idea is they provide a minimalist coding agent that's designed to be easy to extend, so you can tailor the harness to suit your needs without any bloat.
One of the best features is they haven't been noticed by Anthropic yet so you can still use your Claude subscription.
Being a net exporter of a global commodity is only relevant in an extremely acute crisis (e.g. WWIII).
Plus one of the reasons why we export so much oil is because it's cheaper to import oil to a refinery in New Jersey from Saudi Arabia than to get it there from Texas due to some very stupid US laws.
The Jones Act requires that all goods transported by water between US ports be carried on ships that were built in the US, fly the US flag, and crewed by US citizens. That effectively makes it impossible to ship oil between US states at scale without a direct pipeline.
Though to be clear I believe we would still be a net exporter without the Jones Act, it's just one of those weird things about the US oil industry.
You can really just say anything and get upvoted on this website.
If this were true then private insurers would have paid comparable rates to Medicare prior to the ACA passing, and that's just not the case. This fact has been a fixture of the US healthcare system since the creation of Medicare.
Shutting down production doesn't pressure the US at all since the oil and gas can't go anywhere anyway. They're shutting it down because they have to, there's nowhere to put the oil.
It would be relatively trivial to build a system that gives an LLM the tools necessary to go through each citation in a legal brief and verify its authenticity, and that's something I think opus-4.6 or gpt-5.3 could complete reliably.
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