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Hacker News is like an enclave of soldiers who haven't heard that the war is over. Those who don't make an effort to rejoin society will be left behind after "AI" companies bankrupt all of their customers and "AI" investors move on to the next fad.

According to this article: whenever someone games a benchmark to make an upward chart on some y-axis, it's YOUR responsibility to prove how and why that trend can't continue indefinitely.

emoji face with eyes rolling upward


Seems to me that the default is "I don't know what's going to happen" and if you're making a confident prediction, bring evidence.

Scott makes a Lindy effect argument which is plausible, but don't let that fool you, we still don't know what's going to happen.


I'm pretty sure that gaming benchmarks can continue indefinitely.


Billing Medicare for services that never get performed is a particularly offensive kind of fraud. I hope these criminals get a harsh sentence.


I think this is less offensive than the kind of scheme where a hospital billed for doing actual heart surgery on patients who didn’t have heart problems. https://www.sfgate.com/health/article/REDDING-Settlement-in-...


The worst one in history was elected to the Senate.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rick_Scott


Yeah but that's the point, you need to display to the serfs that you're above the law and you will do nothing about it.

You need one every generation or else the workers might rise up.


Don't believe this imposter. I'm the real Cliff Stoll and I died in 2024.


Hmmm ... maybe I'm impostering you, My HydroFloric. I either died before, after, or simultaneously with you. (of course, special relativity has something to say about "simultaneous')


When disagreeing, please reply to the argument instead of calling names.


There's was no argument in that comment, just a display of pretentiousness. Also, this wasn't name calling, just plain sarcasm. "Badass" , if meant literally, is a positive adjective.

You're being ridiculous.


Nobody wrote this.


I thought it was a reference to "kill 'em all and let God sort 'em out"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caedite_eos._Novit_enim_Dominu....


How is there this much misinformation out there about this? It's a neologism based on the character M from the James Bond franchise. Do a little free-association from the phrase "Bond—James Bond" and you end up calling that the M-dash.

Until that relatively recent shift, it was named the Morse Dash—you'd think because of the "long" glyph when rendering Morse Code, but no, it was named for the 17th century English Catholic martyr Henry Morse, for reasons lost to time.


Did you read an LLM summary of the article? It mentions all of those topics but none of them in the way you say.

The article describes a reverse-engineering effort in Bulgaria during Soviet times, but doesn't say anything anti-communist, just that direct commerce with the West was not possible at that time. It relates that effort to the author's motivation for working on an open-source circuit analyzer, and takes a pretty strong stance against uncritically adopting technology without any attempt at understanding how it works.


Car parts are tangible. Even if the product doesn't stay onshore forever, it has to enrich people onshore in order to move.

All the output of a datacenter effectively goes offshore immediately.


On the contrary, the first companies to acknowledge the new AI Winter will have a big competitive advantage over those still dumping money into the bottomless pit.


My local ice cream shop has never invested anything in AI. Do you think they'll come out of this ahead?


I've seen the "success" a non-software company has been having, trying to integrate AI into their processes. A hypothetical competitor who chose not to do so would absolutely be coming out ahead right now.

I can't say whether this trend would continue, but the answer to your question today is "yes".


Genuinely curious, what could an LLM even do for an ice cream shop? Checkout already takes less time than scooping a cone, and it's even quicker with cash. Maybe it could surveil the customers and employees? But I think that will lose you more customers than it gains.

Generally I would expect the ROI to be negative, like we've seen with most corporate AI projects, so yeah any ice cream shop that didn't invest in "AI" is going to come out ahead of one that poured money into the pit.


There's more to AI than LLMs.


My local ice cream shop doesn't even have a computer in the building. Well, unless you count the credit card terminal.


Ice cream tends not to sell well in winter.


New York City seems to be a counterexample - gelato and ice cream stores everywhere that seem to do decent trade year-round...


Alas, no winter in my locality ever.


[flagged]


https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

> Be kind. Don't be snarky. Converse curiously; don't cross-examine. Edit out swipes.


Remember the Long Island Ice Tea Company that renamed to Long Blockchain Company? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_Blockchain_Corp


People still believing in AI being a temporary thing are the same ones refusing to get a mobile phone in the late 90s. Stating it wasn't needed and just a nice to have.


Ok, so that’s good for Apple.

Microsoft is invested heavily in OpenAI?


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