The new rule here requires you to pay for part of your imports (up to ~60%), even if you export more. I know people who installed batteries in the inverters because of this. It is more expensive overall (hybrid inverter + LFP batteries) but has other benefits (blackouts are not a problem, most months you don't even use the grid). I imagine that once sodium-ion battery production scales and costs decline, this will become the "default" option for a solar installation.
When COVID hit, I knew a lot of engineers who decided to move to rural areas / small farms because they could leverage Starlink to work remotely.
Last year, when I asked whether they still liked Starlink, all of them said it is amazing, but they had gotten fiber coverage in their area from a local provider, so they don't use it anymore, or just use it as a backup.
I think Starlink was a huge demand signal that there were people willing to pay a premium for faster-than-radio internet. So, unless they manage to be cheaper and faster than fiber, I don't think there is much of an endgame there.
But there are a few places that will need Starlink, like planes, cruise ships, and islands. I'm just not sure if that will justify that $1T valuation.
Meanwhile, as one of those engineers, they ran fiber down the highway a mile from my house circa 2021, but they did not do any upgrades at all to the last mile infrastructure so I still only have a ~10Mbps DSL option for wired internet at that house, which is a big step up from literally no wired option before, but still vastly inferior to Starlink. (The terrain makes terrestrial wireless a nonstarter in the area). I've since moved back to civilization, but I still own the house. As far as I know, there are no plans at all to improve the last mile infrastructure.
Separately, from SpaceX's own prospectus, Starlink is only a tiny fraction of the overall conglomerate that went public recently. It "only" needs to support double digit billions of valuation to pull its weight inside of the company.
> there are no plans at all to improve the last mile infrastructure
The economics of laying fiber to the premises are heavily driven by density of potential customers * probability that a potential customer will sign up if you run fiber down their street. You can get reasonable intuition by focusing on the density alone & ignoring the competition / pricing side of things.
I'm not familiar with current US construction costs to install fiber but have some intuition from Australia.
With Australia's national broadband network project from a decade or so ago, it'd cost in the ballpark of $100 AUD per meter to run fiber down the street in an underground trench - most of the capex is digging the holes in the ground etc, the cost of the cable itself is essentially free. The construction budget for a suburb would be something like $2000 / premises. To give a ballpark estimate, suppose 25% of your budget is the premises-specific work to connect the house to the cable running down the street, if they choose to sign up for your broadband plan. That leaves at most $1500 / premises for the rest of your capex budget, so the economics only work if you've got a neighbourhood with a density of least one house every 15 meters. Those numbers aren't exact but they'd be in the ballpark.
There's a bit of variability in the cost per meter to install, if you can reuse existing poles & run the cable aerially that might be only 30%-40% of the cost of digging holes, so you might be able to support a lower density suburb that way & still stick to your construction budget.
In Australia for the lower density rural / semi-rural areas they'd use fixed wireless, & finally satellite for the remote extremely low density areas where it didn't even make sense to build a wireless tower.
it is well known that Australia has an extremely lazy workforce that refuse to put in any real work.
the best example here is the stupid residential building cost. nowadays it costs over $1m AUD or $700k USD do a first floor 2bedroom 1 bathroom extension for an existing house in good condition. That is significantly more expensive than building a big house in the US.
I'm fairly sure there are also houses in Australia being built for less than $1m AUD given there are new houses being sold for less than $1m AUD with no indication those developers are making a loss.
nice straw man, you can of course find houses below $1m when you go to regional areas where job opportunities simply do not exist. how about you just compare construction cost in Sydney with say those expensive part of the US, e.g. LA and SF?
let's don't even start on the quality of those new builds, that would be the laughing stock of the entire world.
I was only trying to talk about Starlink here, as that is what TFA is about. Starlink is AMAZING in-flight, out at sea, etc.. But since you brought it up:
> Separately, from SpaceX's own prospectus, Starlink is only a tiny fraction of the overall conglomerate that went public recently. It "only" needs to support double digit billions of valuation to pull its weight inside of the company.
So, where does the rest of the valuation come from?
It feels like it comes from the alien simulation-theory overlords.
I mean, it was a response to a claim, without evidence, that it was valuable.
Is your position that _you_ can make assertions without evidence but that lesser mortals may not contradict you without writing a paper on the subject?
I’m convinced that a large part of the user base of this site is genuinely, literally, solipsistic.
The simple answer is that SpaceX is worth about 1900 billion dollars at today's stock price. It's the 7th most valuable company on Earth.
According to an AI I asked, about 50% of that value is Starlink, with space launches and AI making up about 25% each.
The Starlink business depends on their cheap space launch tech, so using these rough numbers capability I'd say it is worth 75% of the company, or $1400B.
Er, don’t believe everything the magic robots tell you. Like, seriously, why on earth could you believe an LLM on this? Have we completely lost all power of critical thinking?
The exact percentages is not the point. SpaceX is worth $1832B¹, and those are the three main revenue streams. However you slice it, their rocket launch business is extremely valuable.
And i brought an argument. You said it makes space-x very valuable and i explain that the amount of payload we even send up is very limited which contracditcs 'very valuable'.
I then explain further what Elon Musks plan is to sell us his trillion dollar company or how you frame it 'very valuable' and explain why it doesn't work
There are areas where the bureaucratic hurdles to changing anything and the incentives for changing anything work out to nothing ever changing. I assume in 20 years most of Berlin is still going to have 50mbit/s max. I hear residents of New York have completely given up and are using 5G modems because putting up new cables just isn't practical. On the other hand, these cities do have a significant minority of flats with gigabit internet, so if you care you can pick a modern building with modern cabling. Maybe the segment who both live in old apartments and also are willing to pay for fast internet is too small to bother with.
> But there are a few places that will need Starlink, like planes, cruise ships, and islands. I'm just not sure if that will justify that $1T valuation.
There's also drones and front-line trenches, but your point still stands.
>And for that reason the EU, India, China and Russia will build their own Starlink alternatives.
I don't know about the rest, but Russia started working on its own Starlink well before the war. We have the North and Siberia where satellite internet is the only option. Another target market is Russian Railways which would love to have internet in the trains not only when they pass areas with mobile coverage.
The problem with LEO constellation is wasted airtime outside of the country that owns it. Starlink just let anyone pay for the service irrespective of legality and let the leftovers go to waste, but most sane people can't accept that model.
They just launch those sats, and straight up serve Internet illegally. Those are the bonkers parts.
India is super super poor still I cannot imagine they would build out domestic Starlink for hypothetical wars before other actual critical infrastructure.
To launch a starlink style system, you need to be able to rapidly design and produce hundreds of thousands satellites and launch them within relatively short period of time with extremely high success rate. only the largest industrialized nation on earth can do that. india is 30-50 years away from such achievement.
To give you some quick ideas - for the total of 330 space launches in 2025, the US had almost 200, China had close to 100 launches, Russia had 17 launches, the rest of the world had the remaining 20 in total.
India was the first country to reach Mars on its first attempt. ISRO is a highly capable org, and cost effective. India also was #4 to land on the moon after the USSR, USA and China - beating Japan to the punch. SpaceX is yet to deliver a payload to the moon or Mars - orbit or lander.
How many countries can claim the achievement of developing nuclear weapons? Does that make North Korea somehow an inherently more successful country than Germany?
Spending money on a space program while hundreds of millions of your citizens are living in extreme poverty is obscene (unless it provides significant economic value)
> Spending money on a space program while hundreds of millions of your citizens are living in extreme poverty is obscene
Why? According to Wikipedia they spend like $1.4b annually. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISRO That's like an extra $10 for each of these citizens living in "extreme poverty".
And what's the cutoff? Like 10% of the US population is under the poverty line: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_in_the_United_States. Is NASA "obscene" too? Granted that's not the same as "extreme poverty" but it's still a bad look in the richest country in the world, right?
> unless it provides significant economic value
Investments in science and technology generally do. Rich countries are advanced in science and technology.
> Does that make North Korea somehow an inherently more successful country than Germany?
Your argument is all over the place. This thread is about if India could tackle LEO comsats, but perhaps you're seeing it through a lens of prestige/success.
> Spending money on a space program while hundreds of millions of your citizens are living in extreme poverty is obscene
You'll love Gil Scott-Heron's classic that wrestled the same ideas in the 1960s USA, titled Whitey on the Moon
That only matters if you want to know how much an average individual can spend. Gross GDP is more relevant when you're discussing how much the state could spend on defence programs.
Yeah who knows poor infrastructure might let India skip fiber in some areas entirely. Maybe it’s not that hard to launch a domestic Starlink if Blue Origin/ SpaceX will bring your satellites up cheaply .
Not just cruise ships, but practically every boat with a bed in it. People sailing on small boats all around the world have starlink now. It's kind of a game changer in a lot of ways for small boats.
I feel the same way about consumer AI tools now. Gemini and ChatGPT have been abysmal lately. They can no longer be relied on to do multi-turn searching and thinking.
Before, they could stay in thinking mode for more than 7 minutes. For example, "find a source for this claim" would search, analyze, and self-adjust the query. Nowadays, even if I push for it, I cannot make these tools work for more than 30 seconds before they give generic answers, even in "Pro" mode.
At one point we considered adding artifical delay to responses because irrational users dont trust something that finishes fast, even if its the same quality.
How empirical are your comparisons of new and old outputs?
From what you said: Not looking at code is bad, not because Claude can slip a few bugs (it can), but because LLMs tend to default to writing more code and features than needed, which isn't a good thing. I see a lot of people making 10+ PRs per day, but most of them are just going back to fix earlier PRs.
Claude always likes to "go big," for example, by choosing tools that can support millions of concurrent users or by adding unnecessary layers of abstraction that create more maintenance pain. I guess that's good for LLM companies, since more tokens are spent fixing the mess it caused.
Every time I enter plan mode for a huge feature, I end up cutting about 30-60% of the task scope before the LLM can actually start the work. I review the final code, and I still find things to cut. As said before "The best code is no code, or code you don’t have to maintain" [0]
This post needs some examples, because I have never had an interaction with Claude that made me think this way.
LLMs generally have a way to "play a role" (most earlier prompt guides ask you to start with "You are a <role> expert in a <domain>"). So maybe if you interact with it by asking questions, it might assume that it knows more than the operator and adopt that attitude?
The post matches my experience as well, I am asking a question like “does A work like this and that”, and Claude responds with “you’re conflating A and B! Only A does this and that, and B does that other thing!”
Well, I am perfectly aware of B and that other thing and did not conflate them at all. I also achieved enlightment, so I don’t argue with Claude here, just ignore the obnoxiousness and move on.
I interpret the case you mention as a necessary though jarring rebalancing - to the opposite pole - of the sycophantic prior implementations which would, in paraphrasing here, praise the user with framing like “Wow this is a fascinating comparison and you’re on to something that can change the world!” which has been documented (I’m not citing sources at this time, my bad I know).
The post definitely reads to me like the diary entry of a jilted friendship where for some reason the counter party got tired of being encouraging to everything and is, well, kind of not interested in hiding that anymore. YMMV.
It happens when you ask it about esoteric information or under-documented behavior that conflicts with its training data. Here's an example. Tested today on Opus 4.8, and Opus accuses the user of being wrong, even when this is documented behavior [0].
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Why does Starship pressurize the liquid oxygen tank with gaseous preburner exhaust, which is oxygen rich but is contaminated by H2O and CO2 waste products?
They are dumping literal tons of H2O and CO2 into the liquid oxygen tank, which freeze and clog up the intake filters. SpaceX has lost several booster losses due to this issue.
Why would SpaceX choose such a failure-prone design?
If a model locks in in the bias in its training data, it takes time to "reason" it out of it. Sometimes it is not possible and you have to start a new session hoping it will not "fix" itself into wrong position again. I had it more often with ChatGPT than Claude.
Fable feels like a version of Opus running on a harness that won't let it halt until it's sure the issue is fixed, which makes sense if what you want is a model that's better at benchmarks.
It's a very good model, but it comes at a huge premium: not only do the tokens cost more, but the model itself really wants to spend them all. For example, working with React Native, Fable never just says "okay, I did the thing, that's it." It tries to rebuild the entire app from scratch, run the whole test suite, and watch every log and warning.
This is the first time with LLMs I've felt that upgrading to a model isn't worth it, even if my company lets me use it, because all the building / testing was just destroying my machine and its battery, which keeps me from working on other things.
For now, it feels like Opus with ultracode is a better choice (less pollution of the main context, more parallelism in investigations).
Fable 5 on medium is amazing. It's handling everything I throw at it
I had _one_ instance where for some obscure reason it decided to fall back to Opus 4.8 and Opus IMMEDIATELY fucked it up and implemented a super obvious feature in a slightly-wrong way.
I find high+ unusable, it's way too slow and "thorough" on 99% of mundane task.
Sure it's better at vibecoding whole tasks, it's clearly good at it, but give it a simple one, and it will still do way more than needed.
It's way too fixated on validating even the simplest things, I find it an unproductive model unless you're implementing whole tasks and doing other things in the meantime.
Why are you deploying a bleeding edge, incredibly expensive, model to do the simplest things? Use Sonnet, hell, use Haiku, they'll get the job done and won't set fire to several rainforests in order to achieve the task.
On what setting in which environment do you run it? I use the VSCode extension on Extra High and feel like it does exactly what needs to be done and stops when the thing I asked for is done. Extra comments come only when they fall into the area of code that was changed.
I tested it to fix React Native bugs in a project, comparing it with Opus. It fared better on harder bugs, taking less time to find the root cause, but after implementing a fix, it spent a lot of time and effort on validation. This was mostly unnecessary, since most of the bugs were in the JS code, so for most things, hot reloading is enough for E2E validation and to run just the right tests. No need to run a full build and test suite (which takes 10+ minutes); the CI can do this.
I switched back to Opus because of this validation quirk. Overall, Fable spent 20% of the time on coding and 80% on validation.
I think using Fable for planning and Opus for execution could be a "best of both worlds" approach (I need to test this more), but for most cases, it's not necessary, and Opus is enough.
> most of the bugs were in the JS code, so for most things, hot reloading is enough for E2E validation and to run just the right tests. No need to run a full build and test suite (which takes 10+ minutes); the CI can do this.
Have you tried adding this instruction to your agents.MD? Avoiding situations were the agent start running a loop is the main use case of the file for me
I've found the opposite. Granted I use sub agents heavily but I've had it run for hours with far fewer tokens used than when I was previously using opus4.6-8.
> which makes sense if what you want is a model that's better at benchmarks
This so much.
Opus 4.6 was the last Anthropic model that was good at assisting you, 4.7 and later ones have completely inverted this relationship and it's you assisting it.
Yes, I admit they are smarter, I admit we've reached a point where LLMs are more creative and could be writing better code (albeit with some design hiccups) than I do, but they are also increasingly bad at helping me.
Sure, they do my job when prompted 8 times out of 10 (but then, what's the point of having me anyway?), but my issue is that when I try to invert the relationship they will keep jumping onto solving the issues themselves and disregard my feedback or request.
E.g. I wanted to know some DNS details of an emailer module in Fable 5 and it jumped onto "why I should've used magic links", it just not did what asked.
E.g. 2. There was a worker machine that had an environment misconfiguration and I tasked it to find which github action was setting that specific flag and where. Instead of answering a question, it jumped into just hardcoding it in the code.
E.g. 3. I had some issues with batching, and while I tasked it to investigate whether batching was needed at all for that particular problem (hint, it wasn't) it went and changed the batching logic as to fix the bug.
I am extremely disappointed with Fable's personality.
I can clearly see it's strong, but I'm wondering whether the relationship of LLMs as assistant has broken forever, and it's us now that are being tasked into assisting them instead, because that's how it feels.
The training/reinforcement is clearly biased towards solving problems, not answering questions.
I feel like a lot of this could be solved by having a mode somewhere between Plan Mode and Execute Mode in Claude Code. Quite frequently I'll fire up Claude Code in the context of some checked out code because I want to ask some questions where having access to the source would probably be useful, I don't want it to go running off and making changes though, and I also don't really want a detailed plan for a chunk of work. I just want to ask something like "run cargo build and explain the errors to me", nine times out of ten it will indeed explain the errors but it'll then run off and start trying to fix them regardless of whether I said not to.
Essentially what I want is the experience of using Claude on the web in basic chat mode, but with the ability for it to go read my actual code and perform actions that can assist in finding answers to those questions.
I like this proactivity in theory, but as you say: it's expensive. I wonder if this can be solved with the right prompt. E.g. "these are your constraints. Only resolve x. If you are unsure if a task is outside constraint, check with me first."
In fact, Opus does the same. It finishes the job, and redo it from scratch before presenting the result to the user. This happens even for simpler writing tasks especially when I instruct it to create a text file.
I unleashed it on a compiler codebase that I've been developing for several months now using Claude Sonnet 4.5/6, Gemini 3.1 Pro, DeepSeek V4 Pro(recent), and a bit of Qwen3.6-27B. Right away Fable found several longstanding bugs in our compiler that we hadn't found before. It found that there was a critical part of our design that needed to be mostly redesigned/rewritten and gave a very well-reasoned rationale for doing so.
A compiler that takes C code (a subset of C with some extensions) and compiles it to microcode for a type of microcoded, algorithmic state machine that we're developing.
> there's not enough money to be made via speculation
I mean, there is money to be made. CATL stock (the major producer of EV batteries with 50% market share, with billions of contracts for stationary batteries) rose 48.81% over the last 6 months, for example.
But I agree that news about renewables goes unnoticed. I only see news about renewables because I actively seek out channels and websites that cover it. I wonder if it is because most companies in the industry are Chinese and don't focus on PR in the West as AI companies do.
The biggest competitor to Starlink is, ironically, traditional fiber.
When COVID hit, I knew a lot of engineers who decided to move to rural areas / small farms, because they could leverage Starlink to work remotely.
Last year, when I asked whether they still liked Starlink, all of them said it was amazing, but they had gotten fiber coverage in their area from a local provider, so they don't use it anymore, or just use it as a backup.
I think Starlink was a huge demand signal that there were people willing to pay a premium for faster-than-radio internet. So, unless they manage to be cheaper and faster than fiber, I don't think there is much of an endgame there.
Starlink isn’t for areas served by fiber, it’s for areas that do not have have good Internet access available, which are far larger than the area served by fiber.
Starlink isn’t for areas served by fiber it’s for areas that don’t have have good Internet access available, which are far larger than the area served by fiber.
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