Bitcoin (and crypto at large) goes through these 4 year cycles repeatedly. Each time people claim its dead, "this time is different", etc etc. It peaked at the end of 2024 and now we're in mid 2026...traditionally near the bottom of the cycle. There IS someone in the White House now that seems hellbent on driving the global economy into the ground but until there's definitive evidence that this time really is different, I'm going to assume it's business as usual and people screaming about how its over is just the buy indicator it's been many times in the past.
There's no such thing as predicting the future when it comes to assets. Patterns aren't guarantors of future returns. If they were; the asset would be a sure-thing. Your confidence isn't warranted.
I'm well aware it's not a guarantee of future returns but as I said in my original message, this is a well established pattern. Until there's definitive evidence that it has stopped acting according to that pattern I'm going to disregard the "it's dead for real this time" crowd.
"History does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes"
I'm not a TA nerd, but there is a very clear pattern that has been established. Crypto moves in cycles. You don't need to draw a ton of triangles and lines all over a chart to see the cycle this has gone through over and over.
If it were a reliable predictor, it’d be trivial to become a billionaire by levering up, and riding the next “cycle” up, no? You doing it? I suspect not, because you know it’s not actually a reliable predictor of anything.
You can suspect all you want, I'm not here to argue with anyone's strong feelings about crypto either way. Just that there's an established pattern to how this particular market moves.
So what's the moneyline on all these outages being the result of vibe-coded LLM-as-software-engineer/LLM-as-platform-engineer executive cost cutting mandates?
Even if they were being hypocritical, I think the impact of briefly-bad UI on someone's blog post pales in comparison with bad UI in a product of macOS scale.
I don't know, I figure with a billion dollars Apple should be able to do much better at being awful than this. More proactive rather than accidental awfulness. Something that isn't just bad but capital intensive at the same time. Anyone can build a bad UX on a few menus, or a whole system incrementally over time. But to really lean in? Maybe commission famous artists with eye watering fees for each icon, truly over the top marketing campaigns, really get the cash-fired furnaces going. Really just go full-potlatch on things.
I've used macOS for development for 15+ years now but always built my gaming rigs using Windows. For the first time in my life I'm so annoyed with Windows I'm seriously entertaining the idea of putting SteamOS on my rig and fighting my way through whatever nonsense I have to to make it work. I was able to tolerate a lot of Microsoft's nonsense so I could have a very easy path to just turn my machine on and play some games without having to think too much about it but my patience is finally at an end.
The content of the document matters too. I don't really care if someone was AI-assisted writing a project plan. As long as it's sane and clear I'm not gonna lose sleep over that. However for my performance review I definitely want my manager to put in the effort and actually tell me nuanced thoughts on my performance. I don't want AI output for that part.
Wait until you find out that most managers write feedback using copy/paste boilerplate with maybe a few tweaks to personalize it. And this was happening long before LLMs.
Oh I'm well aware. When I was an EM for a bit last year a bunch of colleagues told me they used ChatGPT to write their reviews. It was gross and I always hand crafted, small batch artisanal reviews when I'm in the managers chair.
Who is "they" and where is the proof there was widespread "system abuse" that warrants voluntarily abdicating any lead we have in research to other countries?
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