I like this post as it landed at a really good time for me. But, I had a remaining question based on one of the lines:
>So I’ve drawn a line. I only discuss pros and cons with smart people; I don’t argue right and wrong with ego-driven ones.
So uh... anyone have any tips on _identifying_ the kinds of folks the author is describing here? I guess I'm left to presume it would mean those people _would_ explicitly ask, but if not how would you determine what kind of person you are dealing with? Sure, I can brainstorm and reason through, but looking for feedback from folks who have been successful in doing this professionally.
Yep. And they don't charge much of a premium to deliver this. I can buy things at HEB and not worry about them being expired/etc, even for grocery pickup. Kroger, afaict, _chooses_ the expiring/broken stuff if you do grocery pickup. Kroger is closer to me so I've given it several chances, but every time they seem to get me in a new way to get me with opened, expired, or damaged stuff, and I won't be bothered to establish a quality control process just to buy some groceries. Meanwhile I've done grocery pickup from HEB for a couple years now and have maybe 3-4 things I've had to request a refund. The whole foods near me is heading down the Kroger route too.
It's literally just doing the core service better than average and allowing it to yield results. "hmmm lets try not scamming people so we can save pennies on some expired bell peppers in a loss leader area to begin with... Perhaps they'll also pick up some prescriptions while they are here! Heck, I bet if we make some effort to keep our employees relatively happy, customers might also have a better experience in our stores!"
IMO/rant, few businesses/people seem to grasp this and all think there is some magic "business hack" they can do while avoiding doing the core business thing well. And I don't think it's that they don't know it, it's the divorce between the reality they themselves likely desire to live in and experience, and the reality they build/provide day to day in their work. But, that plagues everything these days tbh. Nobody just wants to do the fundamentals well, everyone is looking for "this one simple hack" that alleviates having to just do the work. The calculator might save you some money, but it'll never, by itself, extract the gold from the mine.
It’s interesting that the private supermarkets (TJs, HEB) seem to both follow this happy and overstaffed model, and the public ones (Kroger, Albertsons/Safeway) do the opposite.
Albertson’s adds insult to injury by overcharging for everything. Tomato? $4.99/lb please.
They are not serving the same customers. HEB operates in a state that has exploded economically for quite a few decades, and where people have large, growing families that cook a lot.
TJs and Costco also have similar fan bases, but they restrict their stores to the richer side of town.
Kroger and Albertsons, however, have operations in many stagnant or declining areas, saddled with union contracts from a long time ago when those places were not stagnant. Household sizes and hence the utility of full service grocers have fallen precipitously for many of their stores.
There is certainly a component of HEB’s leaders choosing to not squeeze a short term profit now, but they wouldn’t be able to do it if Walmart and Kroger could eat their lunch because their customer base was declining in numbers and purchasing power.
Hell, even Kroger and Albertsons’ customer base is declining in purchasing power which is why not Aldi and Lidl are wrecking them wherever Walmart hasn’t.
Publix is also on that first list, of happy and overstaffed and privately owned. I do most of my shopping there and it's much more pleasurable than Kroger or Walmart.
Personally I hated Publix when I lived in Florida and it made me homesick. I've never had so much food come with mold in the packaging than from Publix.
While the employees might be happy at Publix, they are in, in my experience, poorly trained. Also, the rest of the shopping experience is utter crap compared to H-E-B. Publix of 2026 is a far cry from Publix of ~2000. This is especially evident in their Produce and Meat departments.
I had to argue with a Meat Department Manager at a Publix in Central Florida who told me that "Top Round Roast" did not exist. I told him I could walk 50 feet to the Deli and get some slices of the Boar's Head Top Round Roast Beef if he'd like to try this non-existent cut. He did not have an answer and I had to show him images of the cut I wanted and he said they don't sell that cut.
This was great given it was a 20-mile round trip to that store for me...
Having spent most of my life in the south, I thought Publix was a great grocery store. But then I spent some time traveling the US and discovered stores like H-E-B, Hy-Vee, Wegmans, and Harmons and realized that Publix was just clean version of a low-end grocery store.
> few businesses/people seem to grasp this and all think there is some magic "business hack" they can do while avoiding doing the core business thing well.
Unfortunately , it seems to work for Kroger.
As customers we hate it, but Kroger sells something like 20% of all groceries in the US, and HEB is a s small by comparison regional grocer
Yea. Just my observation, they are losing some pretty big markets in that region. It's pretty clear from going in the Kroger stores anywhere near an HEB that HEB is really hurting them. They are all empty (dystopian as the OP of thos thread put it) any time I go in. And HEB shows no signs of slowing down...
I've gone back and forth several times in my head because I truly love Fedora and am happiest on that OS, but these ongoing supply chain compromises just make me lose sleep. I wish there was a Fedora LTS that had the same community size, build system, etc because I really like all that, as well as the transparency of it all.
I know there are concerns no matter what OS, and would appreciate insights/discussion as well, but I sleep a little better just running a boring old Ubuntu LTS instance for a balance of dwell time between releases and hitting my system, as well as enough visibility/usage so something gets caught. And I know, this was the installer, not a system package.
Tangent to this topic, if you are deficient or sensitive to B vitamin supplementation, it may be worthwhile to get tested for MTHFR/COMT genetic variants.
So, a lot of the article makes several points that aren't necessarily new, but
> The problem tends to show up when a CEO is handed an agentic tool like Claude Code, and has it create something, which will work just fine, and thinks “oh, wait, why do we need so many people, when I can just sit here and make things work?”
> This is a bad CEO.
As described, this seems to me more like a lack of reasoning/critical thinking ability, and it's not unique to CEOs. Tracks more with a combo of "Gell-Mann Amnesia" and automation bias IMO.
> This all reminds me of cargo cult thinking: The CEO knows that somewhere in the org, employees are pecking away at computers and work gets done. So they figure that themselves pecking away with Claude Code and seeing work get done is the same thing. It’s not. All those other steps those people are handling — the ones the CEO never sees — still need to happen.
"Cargo culting" as described here by the author may be happening. But, I think it's CEOs seeing other CEOs doing layoffs and claiming it's because of AI efficiency gains. They see the other CEO's stock go up/get hyped/etc, so they decide to do it. I think it's the same thing that happens inside companies IE people see how others behave and it works, so they do the same. Effectiveness aside because that's not at all what I'm arguing, AI is just the current flavor; it is a very safe thing to "cargo cult" at the moment.
I feel like individually, if you sat down with literally any reasonable person on the planet they would arrive at and/or agree with the tenor here.
I'd be curious to hear from people well versed in group psychology/dynamics and/or just a lot of leadership/people experience: what leads people to this type of thinking once they get in a group setting? It just... seems endemic at this point.
Obviously nobody here is going to know what I do or don't know, but I'm just increasingly curious what I am not understanding about this type of thing. It seems so obvious, yet that makes me ever more suspect that I'm oversimplifying it, or just totally ignorant about the problem in general.
It's because the average organization has lots of people who don't care about their own productivity and won't adopt new tools or processes unless forced to. This is true of most new tech - lots of workers had to be forced into using computers - but AI also has some other bumps to cross like lots of people who tried early models and then wrote them off, not realizing how fast they'd improve. And most orgs have no infrastructure or processes for allocating individuals token budgets, and most employees have no experience of properly deploying budgets.
Roll it all together and saying "just use it dammit" has some obvious advantages:
1. It's clear.
2. It's simple.
3. It eliminates all excuses employees might come up with for not using it.
The people at the top of these companies aren't stupid. They might have miscalculated how many tokens people can actually use, but that's very hard to calculate because usage is opaque and tools/processes change on a nearly weekly basis. They will eventually build out processes, tools, social conventions and performance metrics that take into account efficiency of token usage. But this is hard! Most managers aren't really assessed on the precise productivity of their teams, for instance, because productivity is often poorly defined.
> what leads people to this type of thinking once they get in a group setting
Game theory! The downside of being brave vastly outweighs the upside. For the C-suite, there is no cost to herdlike-behavior, regardless of the outcome. However, there is a very high personal downside to being a maverick, and your board later discovers you made the wrong choice against the grain. The upside of being maverick and right is very limited.
Once a behavior has become mainstream, hopping on the bandwagon is no longer individually attributable to decision-makers, but is seen (and reported) as a macro-economic phenomenon: Nadella, Zuckerberg and Bezos didn't overhire - the American tech industry overhired.
we are going through our second AI transformation, the first one didn't work that well because the tools were shit.
Whats happening now and whos driving it is interesting. The CEO has a license for this new tool (think one of the top 4, Qwen Claude, Gemini, openAI) and really likes it. So much so that they (non coder) are making lots of little single page web apps.
The COO is bollocks deep in AI, and is saying that we cannot buy any SaaS products anymore. We must make it ourselves.
The engineering manager has seen this as an opportunity to build out a brand for engineering (its a small department in a medium sized company) by delivering quickly what the large year long efforts cant.
This has formed a slopnexus where PoCs are spun up left right and centre, but there isn't much time or thought going in to making them sustainable.
What started out as a (simple ish) asset management tool, neatly scoped into a deliverable PoC has morphed into a 5 product as one monster.
Its a mess that will either lead to burn out or disaster.
Just...wow. That sounds awful, and I'm sorry for you, but I believe many other companies will or are already following that same path.
And myself being an infrastructure guy that needs to maintain all these PoCs that are now suddenly critical for production, it's the perfect nightmare.
And mind you, that dynamic always existed to a certain degree (laptop on a desk that runs some ugly Python script that does half the work of the BizOps team? Check. GCP account attached to the GSuite running a random instance for finance when the company is 101% on AWS? Check. Spreadsheet with macros that sends emails via Outlook as a mailing list manager? Check.) but at least when you discovered that you could scold them and tell them that we need to migrate this to a proper system because security.
But nowadays with vibe-coded internal apps...it's a challenge.
There is probably some opportunity here for a centralized, internal only LLM proxy which injects AGENT.md and skills and permits switching backend providers.
> what leads people to this type of thinking once they get in a group setting? It just... seems endemic at this point.
Large and fascinating topic I'm researching, very relevant for agentic AI and ML too. One way that groups can fail is that they just don't work to dampen / vote out individual errors properly (see PAC learning, Condorcet). Other kinds of errors only occur in groups, and can occur even when constituents individually aren't actually wrong. Some related stuff is:
The last is probably the most relevant here and made worse by the negative effects of hierarchy. To quote one section:
> The negative effects of informational cascades sometimes become a legal concern and laws have been enacted to neutralize them. Ward Farnsworth, a law professor, analyzed the legal aspects of informational cascades and gave several examples in his book The Legal Analyst: in many military courts, the officers voting to decide a case vote in reverse rank order (the officer of the lowest rank votes first), and he suggested it may be done so the lower-ranked officers would not be tempted by the cascade to vote with the more senior officers, who are believed to have more accurate judgement;
For token-maxxing, our "senior officers" are just executives, and line workers aren't going to vote. Who is the senior officer for those senior officers? It's not shareholders! It's really the executives of even bigger companies, because that is the actually applicable promotion ladder. It's all kind of obvious, but also a genuinely better explanation than "monkey see monkey do". These are just the simpler things, and there's more gnarly dilemmas in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_knowledge_(logic)
Wow, amazing answer! I have a lot of reading and then thinking to do, but if you are documenting your research anywhere, I'd greatly appreciate somewhere to follow it.
This is a consequence of elements of monopoly power existing in your organization. When you don't have to compete for income you honestly forget how. Then the company becomes a cargo cult of bad ideas driven by managers struggling to differentiate themselves.
It is funny how I do believe this is true, but also can't help but notice how much effort they spend defeating this exact user base. Reminds me of ad companies... I'm sure they also don't care about targeting some fraction of a percentage of their base, but look how much effort they spend defeating ad blockers lol.
> So a truly great engineer also needs to be arrogant/assertive/loud as that is the only way to fight other arrogant people. The "quiet confident" engineers opinion will be overruled by loud incomptent engineers.
What is the underlying cause here? Or is this just a product of group psychology...(?) I feel like it's typically weak and/or incompetent management but hesitating to jump right to that because it's largely out of most people's control beyond a job change.
I would donate money for this comment to be on billboards. It's exactly how I feel.
Heck, gemeni is obviously so successful and gets used so frequently that android had to hijack the power button (at least on pixels) so when you hold the power button, it activates gemini instead of turns the phone off. Clearly, that is because everyone intends to activate AI instead of turn the damn phone off when they hold the power button. `usage_metric++;` /s
Yet I know most people are also [probably] irritated by stuff like this. But _we_ do it anyway...
>So I’ve drawn a line. I only discuss pros and cons with smart people; I don’t argue right and wrong with ego-driven ones.
So uh... anyone have any tips on _identifying_ the kinds of folks the author is describing here? I guess I'm left to presume it would mean those people _would_ explicitly ask, but if not how would you determine what kind of person you are dealing with? Sure, I can brainstorm and reason through, but looking for feedback from folks who have been successful in doing this professionally.