I'm not sure I'd consider the 22nd amendment "kinda recent precedent."

I'm not sure how recent 1947 is? Kids would say it's 100 years ago, although the math obviously doesn't quite check out, we're getting there.

Although I'd say precedent goes back to George Washington refusing a 3rd term.

Are there any bookies for that? Seems like an easy way to get rich betting against that happening. If not, then I would instead wager the "market sentiment" is that Trump isn't actually serious about a 2028 bid or that he won't actually be able to overcome 22A.

Looks like there's about 1M in volume on Polymarket, so you could definitely dump a good bit of money there if you feel strongly:

https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-20...

That's winner - any for "will he be on at least one state ballot?"

Trump doesn't have a very good ROI though... if I put $10k into a Trump "no" I'd only make $373 (or ~3.7%) ROI which is worse than CDs currently